集运日报：中美关税情况好转，符合日报反弹预期，不建议加仓，可考虑部分止盈，专注11月运价情况。-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement in Sino-US tariff situation meets the daily report's rebound expectation, but it is not recommended to increase positions. Instead, partial profit-taking can be considered, and attention should be paid to the freight rates in November [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Although the mutual reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the market to some extent, the freight rates in November may not reach the previously announced increase, suppressing the upward movement of the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the market is generally in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI Freight Rate Index - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, a 15.1% increase from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1107.32 points, a 28.2% increase from the previous period [2] - On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Rate Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, a 12.60% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 965.62 points, a 17.43% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1452.82 points, a 12.30% increase from the previous period [2] - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate Index (SCFI) announced price was 1550.70 points, a 147.24-point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1344 USD/TEU, a 7.87% increase from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, a 22.94% increase from the previous period [2] - On October 31, the China Export Container Freight Rate Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, a 2.9% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1323.81 points, a 2.4% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 772.67 points, a 4.9% increase from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a 0.8-percentage-point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a 0.6-percentage-point decrease from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 45.9, with an expected value of 45.1 and a previous value of 45; the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 51.2, with an expected value of 51.5 and a previous value of 51.4; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7, with an expected value of 49.7 and a previous value of 49.6. The Eurozone's October Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of -9.2 and a predicted value of -8.5 [2] - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global service industry PMI was 55.2, with an expected value of 53.5 and a previous value of 54.2; the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, with an expected value of 52 and a previous value of 52; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8, with an expected value of 53.1 and a previous value of 53.9 [3] Futures Market - On October 31, the main contract 2512 closed at 1804.0, with a decline of 2.54%, a trading volume of 59,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 1251 lots from the previous day [3] - The short-term strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak while the far-month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottoming-out judgment. Risk-takers who were advised to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit-taking. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop-loss should be set [4] - The arbitrage strategy suggests that under the background of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - The long-term strategy suggests taking profits when each contract rises and waiting for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4] - The daily limit for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [4] Tariff Policy - The US will cancel the so-called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% imposed on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly, and the two sides have agreed to continue to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5]