现货价格稳中有降，盘面震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply has increased due to reduced maintenance and higher production. The demand is mixed, with alumina开工 declining and non - aluminum demand weak in some aspects, while other downstream industries show some improvements. Inventory has accumulated, and profits have decreased. The overall market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is neutral. This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 24,000 tons to 830,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 84.3%, a week - on - week increase of 3.5%. Most regions saw an increase in load, except for Central China [3]. - Demand: It is neutral. Alumina开工 decreased, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%. The comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 68.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The monthly开工 rate of lithium hydroxide in China in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall output was basically flat after offsetting increases and decreases [3]. - Inventory: It is bearish. Recently, the shipment pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 442,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.84% and a year - on - year increase of 52.42%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 25.75%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56% [3]. - Basis: It is neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around 95, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - Profit: It is bearish. The weekly average gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17%. Liquid chlorine prices rose, and caustic soda prices fell, leading to a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3]. - Valuation: It is bearish. The spot price is neutral, and the absolute futures price is low. The near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - Macro Policy: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - Investment View: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - Trading Strategy: There are no unilateral or arbitrage strategies at present. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. Part Two: Futures and Spot Market Review - The futures market oscillated within a range. This week, the spot price in Shandong was stable with a slight increase, while the futures price hit a new low. The liquid chlorine subsidy was less, and the liquid chlorine price rose to 350 yuan/ton. Chlor - alkali profits remained high, and factory开工 loads remained high. Demand reached the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons. In the future, the new maintenance intensity of alumina will increase, and the supply and demand of caustic soda will turn to be loose. The spot price is expected to be stable with a slight decline. Future attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production start - up rhythm [6]. Part Three: Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Electricity Price: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [29]. - Device Loss and Production: In the main production areas, maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [34]. - Chlor - Alkali Profit: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profits decreased [42]. - Downstream Price: Alumina prices declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [45]. - Alumina: Alumina开工 recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the alumina开工 rate in Henan increased significantly. Alumina supply - demand balance was restored, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profits were good and remained stable year - on - year [57][68]. - Non - Aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum开工 remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - peak season, and开工 began to decline [69]. - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The开工 rate rebounded [78]. - Subsequent Maintenance Information: Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned or are expected to carry out maintenance in October and November [82].