Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The impact of new - season corn in October has been effectively released, with prices hitting the bottom and rebounding. In November, the supply - side pressure will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - The domestic corn production increase trend is certain, and the market continues to digest the price pressure brought by the increase. The price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. The probability of forming an important bottom in the price is relatively high in the fourth - quarter supply - peak period [8]. - In 2026, the pig production capacity control measures may gradually show results, which may have a negative impact on the corn feed demand situation, while the deep - processing demand situation is stable [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - side situation: The national autumn grain harvest is over 85%. Corn harvest is basically completed except in some late - harvest areas. The supply is still in a loose period, and the most obvious impact stage of concentrated listing on corn prices may have ended in October. The supply pressure in November will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - Price performance: Last week, the spot price was in a stable consolidation stage after the first - round impact of new - season grain sources. The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend, and the starch market was relatively stable [2]. - Trading logic: In the short - term, the domestic corn price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. In the long - term, the domestic corn supply - demand contradiction has eased, and the price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter. However, in 2026, the pig production capacity control may affect the corn feed demand [8]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The current futures price is in the second - round bottom - testing process, and the 2100 - yuan mark support is effective in the short - term. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see when entering the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range. Options can consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range shock [9]. - Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies: The basis spread has little change, and no strategy is recommended. The 1 - 5 spread of corn has narrowed, and the spread structure is relatively steep. It is not suitable for hedging in the raw material and feed demand ends for now. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [9][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast: The price range of corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, and that of starch is 2350 - 2550 yuan [21]. - Risk strategies: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The state reserve continues to purchase to support the market, the North China purchase and sales have recovered, the spot price is stable, the agricultural product trade situation is expected to improve, the cold weather is conducive to grain storage, and the deep - processing acquisition willingness is strong [25]. - Negative information: The corn market harvest is gradually ending, but the new - grain listing level is high, and the price pressure is still large [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Event Attention - Pay attention to the auction purchase transaction situation of China Grain Reserves Corporation, the price - support strength of the state reserve acquisition in the Northeast, and whether the corn report guidance affected by the US government shutdown can be restored [26]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic market: The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend last week, with the main 01 contract slightly down 3 yuan/ton. The starch market was relatively stable, and the main 01 contract of starch was down 1 yuan/ton, performing slightly stronger than the corn disk [2][25]. - Fund flow: The total position of the corn 01 contract increased, and the trading volume decreased. The total position and trading volume of the starch 01 contract were basically the same as the previous week [25]. - Basis and spread structure: The basis structure changed little, and the term - spread structure of corn was still relatively steep. The near - far - month spread slightly shrank. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [32][39][55]. 3.2 External Market - The CBOT corn futures closed higher last week, but the futures price fell from the short - term high due to the disappointment of bullish expectations. The US spot corn harvest is in the final stage, and the market is waiting for relevant data guidance [58]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Planting profit: The planting profit is better than last year, especially in the Northeast and other yield - increasing areas [64]. - Trading profit: As the corn price stabilizes, traders are cautious in building inventories, and there is a small amount of trading profit [64]. - Deep - processing profit: The corn starch profit continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry has significantly declined [64]. - Disk profit: The basis of Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. It is not suitable to enter the market for hedging, but enterprises with low inventory - building costs can pay attention to far - month hedging [64]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has decreased due to the rise in the external market [66]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - China's corn supply - demand balance sheet: The sown area, output, and total supply of corn have increased in recent years. The consumption is relatively stable, and the annual surplus has fluctuated [70]. - Global corn supply - demand balance sheet: The global corn supply and demand are basically balanced, but the inventory - consumption ratio has decreased [71]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Domestic supply: In November, the corn supply is in the stage of declining from the peak. The selling pressure will decrease with the drop in temperature in the Northeast. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level [73]. - Inventory situation: The inventory of northern ports has stopped rising, and the inventory of southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall low inventory provides space for later corn purchase and sales activities [75]. - Foreign corn: The US corn futures price rose, but the lack of corn purchase commitments in the Sino - US trade agreement limited its upward space. The impact on China is limited [77]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Feed demand: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The pig breeding profit has recovered, but the pig production capacity reduction may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [79]. - Deep - processing demand: The fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn attracts downstream enterprises to increase their start - up rates, and the consumption of corn is expected to increase [83].
南华期货玉米、淀粉产业周报：10月新季冲击释放，价格探底回升-20251103
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-03 07:18