行稳致远，精择致胜：可转债2026年投资策略

Core Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, supported by low interest rates, strong demand, and a contraction in supply, despite the current high price levels of convertible bonds [6][27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of selective investment in high-growth sectors, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry chain, which is anticipated to drive significant market demand [6][29][30] Market Review - From the beginning of 2025 to October 20, the A-share market and the convertible bond market both experienced increases, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising by 18.00% [11] - The volatility of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was lower than that of other indices, with an average daily volatility of 0.63% and an annualized volatility of 9.95% [12] - The report highlights a notable divergence in the performance of different types of convertible bonds, with those priced below 130 yuan showing varying degrees of increase [15][18] Convertible Bond Outlook - The report forecasts a more complex external environment in 2026, but the foundation for stable economic growth is being solidified, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [25][26] - The supply-demand imbalance in the convertible bond market is expected to become more pronounced, necessitating greater selectivity in bond selection [27] - The report anticipates that the market will continue to experience structural differentiation and increased volatility, particularly as smaller-cap convertible bonds gain market share [27][28] Focus on AI Industry Chain - The AI industry chain is identified as a key area for investment, with significant growth drivers stemming from increased capital expenditure by major tech companies [29] - Specific sectors within the AI industry, such as AI servers, optical modules, and liquid cooling technologies, are highlighted as having strong growth potential due to rising demand and supportive policies [31][32] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in convertible bonds linked to companies with high relevance to the AI sector, emphasizing the importance of technical barriers and revenue contributions from AI-related businesses [30][31]