航运衍生品数据日报-20251103

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors. The easing of Sino - US trade policies has released positive signals, but the short - term nature of the agreement may not bring long - term confidence to importers. The EC market is in a volatile state, and in the short - term, macro - level positives, capacity control, and multiple price - support expectations will support the market, but the market has already factored in some premiums [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1551, up 10.49% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1021, up 2.89%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have all increased significantly [3][4] - Contract Data: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., most have seen a decline in value compared to the previous period. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1379.6, down 1.69% from the previous value. In terms of positions, most contracts have increased in position size, such as EC2606 with a position increase of 110 [4][5] - Month - to - Month Spread: The 12 - 02 month - to - month spread is currently 250.4, down 10.4 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 642.9, down 25.0; and the 02 - 04 spread is 392.5, down 14.6 [5] Market Analysis - Sino - US Trade Policy Impact: The Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30 led to the relaxation of some trade policies, which alleviated the suppression of trans - oceanic cargo volume by trade frictions. Although the direct impact is concentrated on US routes, it also improves the outlook for European routes. However, the short - term nature of the agreement may not provide long - term confidence to importers [5] - EC Market: The EC market is in a volatile state. Spot prices vary among different shipping companies. Key influencing factors include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the sustainability of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term contract variables. The recommendation is to go long on the main contract at low prices and closely monitor suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [6] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]