INTCO RECYCLING(SH:688087) China Post Securities·2025-11-03 08:52Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.583 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.76%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 226 million yuan, up 16.29% year-on-year [5]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 917 million yuan, a 15.08% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 80 million yuan, marking a significant growth of 104.08% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is focusing on expanding its production bases in China and Southeast Asia, while exploring new business growth points through a diversified product matrix and global channel advantages [6]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 24.57%, slightly down by 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 3.82 percentage points to 8.77% [6]. - The financial expenses have increased, with the expense ratio for the first three quarters at 17.74%, up 2.41 percentage points year-on-year. However, cash flow improved significantly, with operating cash flow for Q3 reaching 165 million yuan, an increase of 124 million yuan year-on-year [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 3.43 billion yuan and 3.91 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.2% and 14.2% [7]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 320 million yuan and 380 million yuan, with growth rates of 3.36% and 18.34%, respectively [7].