尿素早评：情绪好转，反转存疑-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after reaching a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Short - term upward drivers are insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking. Future possible drivers include the renovation of old chemical devices on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Price Changes - Urea Futures Prices: UR01 closed at 1625 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.12%); UR09 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.06%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices: In Shandong, it was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.63%); in Hebei, it was 1610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.62%); in Northeast China, it remained at 1610 yuan/ton (0.00%); in Jiangsu, it was 1580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.63%); in Henan, it remained at 1580 yuan/ton (0.00%) [1]. - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. b. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 113 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 remained at - 78 yuan/ton [1]. c. Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1627 yuan/ton, the highest was 1637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1623 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1625 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1629 yuan/ton. The position was 264103 lots [1]. d. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1].