骑士乳业(920786):库布齐牧业投产盈利能力提升,拓展社区团购与商超渠道

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 914 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.01%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 39.09 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 281.30% [1] - The subsidiary, Kubuchi Animal Husbandry, is gradually starting production, which is expected to enhance profitability [1] - The company is expanding its community group buying and supermarket channels, which is anticipated to further boost sales [2] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company to be 77 million yuan, 105 million yuan, and 136 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.37, 0.50, and 0.65 yuan per share [1][5] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.8, 20.4, and 15.8 times respectively [1][5] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 1.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.8 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][7] Market Conditions - The domestic dairy industry is currently characterized by a "strong supply, weak demand" situation, which is expected to continue affecting raw milk prices [3] - The company is actively engaging in community group buying platforms and expanding into well-known supermarket chains, which may help mitigate some of the supply-demand pressures [2]