煤矿供应端扰动持续，11月关注回调做多机会

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In October, at the macro - level, there were strong expectations for the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the Sino - US trade conflict eased. At the industrial level, steel data was better than expected, achieving production increase and inventory reduction, and the spot trading of coking coal and coke was good. The main contracts of coking coal and coke maintained a strong trend, with a significant upward shift in the center of gravity. As of October 31, coke 01 rose 7.99% to close at 1777, and coking coal 01 rose 12.22% to close at 1286 [6]. - Looking forward to November, at the macro - level, major events are basically settled, and expectations will weaken. At the industrial level, as it returns to the off - season fundamentals, with the compression of steel mill profits, it is feared that hot metal production will not be able to remain at a high level. Be vigilant about the short - term callback risk of coking coal and coke, but the callback space is expected to be limited under supply - side constraints. In the long term, under the expectations of anti - involution and strict coal mine safety supervision, maintain a bullish view on coking coal and coke. Strategically, wait for the callback to buy on the long side for single - sided trading; pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive spread for arbitrage [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Coke Monthly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - In October, coke prices were strong, and in November, pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. Two rounds of price increases were implemented in October, and the third round has started. For example, the Jiexiu quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price increased from 1280 yuan/ton last month to 1380 yuan/ton this month [4][13]. - The freight rates for coke transportation showed mixed trends. For example, the freight from Xiaoyi to Rizhao remained unchanged at 180 yuan/ton, while the freight from Jiexiu to Fengnan increased by 5 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton [17]. 1.2 Supply - In October, coking plant operations declined, and the supply side tightened. Some coking plants were restricted by environmental protection and maintenance, and a few reduced production slightly due to losses. As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of the national independent coking enterprises' full - sample was 73.44%, a decrease of 1.99 percentage points from the previous month, and the daily average coke output was 64.59 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons from the previous month [27]. 1.3 Demand - Hot metal production declined slightly but remained at a high level, providing strong support for raw material demand. However, as the downstream enters the off - season in November, with the compression of steel mill profits, it is difficult for hot metal production to remain at a high level. As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the daily average hot metal output was 236.36 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from the previous month [35]. - Speculative sentiment improved, export profits declined slightly, and the spot trading volume of building materials was lower than the same period in previous years [38]. 1.4 Inventory - Steel mills reduced inventory, ports increased inventory, and coking enterprises' inventory reduction was not obvious, resulting in a decrease in the total inventory. As of October 31, the total coke inventory was 900.02 tons, a decrease of 20.39 tons from the previous month [41]. 1.5 Profit - The improvement in coke per - ton profit was not obvious, and the coke futures profit weakened. As of October 31, the per - ton profit of 30 independent coking enterprises' samples was - 32 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan from the previous month, and the coke 01 futures profit decreased by 54 yuan/ton to 105.2 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [51]. 1.6 Valuation - Coke 01's premium widened, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated. As of October 31, the coke 01 basis was - 88.13, a decrease of 46.5 from the previous month, and the coke 1 - 5 spread was - 139.5, an increase of 4 from the previous month [55]. 2. Coking Coal Monthly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - In October, coking coal prices were strong, and in November, pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. The spot prices of coking coal increased. For example, the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong increased from 1270 yuan/ton last month to 1520 yuan/ton this month [4][61]. 2.2 Supply - In October, there were many accidents in domestic coal mines, and the supply side was tight. The safety inspections in coal - producing areas were frequent, and the production of some coal mines was restricted. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal fluctuated greatly in October, and the import of coking coal from January to September decreased year - on - year [4]. 2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises replenished inventory, upstream enterprises reduced inventory, and the total inventory increased slightly. As of October 31, the total coking coal inventory was 2587.90 tons, an increase of 5.58 tons from the previous month [77]. 2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 01 had a slight premium, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened slightly. As of October 31, the coking coal 01 basis was - 61, a decrease of 122 from the previous month, and the coking coal 1 - 5 spread was - 68, an increase of 18 from the previous month [103].