综合晨报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of the crude oil market is bearish, while short - term attention should be paid to the intensity of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2]. - For precious metals, the short - term market sentiment is fluctuating, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the volatility decreases [3]. - In the copper market, the volume - price potential of Shanghai copper remains, and long - positions should be held based on 86,000 [4]. - The aluminum market is driven by positive macro - sentiment, and Shanghai aluminum will continue to run strongly in the upward channel since May [5]. - Alumina is in a pattern of oversupply, and it will mainly operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy will continue to follow the aluminum price and is unlikely to have an independent market [7]. - For zinc, a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy has a good profit - loss ratio, and Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [8]. - The lead market is a combination of long and short factors, and it is expected to fluctuate between 17,000 and 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Nickel prices are running weakly with a downward - moving center of gravity [10]. - For tin, it is advisable to short - sell on rallies, and the right - side trading should refer to the 20 - day moving average [11]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. - The short - term trend of polysilicon depends on the fermentation of policy news, and it is recommended to take a light - position and follow - the - trend strategy [13]. - The price center of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate upwards, but the amplitude is limited [14]. - Steel prices will mainly oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [15]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - The coke price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17]. - The coking coal price is also more likely to rise than to fall [18]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, attention should be paid to the impact of the Sino - US leaders' negotiations [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is an important observation period for spot freight rates [21]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to pay continuous attention to the low - level layout opportunities of the high - sulfur and low - sulfur price spread [22]. - The asphalt market has weak "peak - season" demand, and the medium - and long - term de - stocking is expected to slow down [23]. - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil cracking [24]. - The urea market will maintain low - level operation in the short term [25]. - Methanol is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - For pure benzene, a calendar - spread reverse arbitrage strategy is recommended [27]. - Styrene prices may continue to run weakly [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene prices are still under pressure [29]. - PVC may fluctuate with the overall macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - For PX and PTA, a reverse arbitrage strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to the impact of energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and its price will follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in mid - to - late November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass prices have limited downward space, and it is advisable to hold short - term out - of - the - money put options [34]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - For soda ash, a short - selling strategy on rallies should be adopted in the long term [36]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of soybean imports from the US after the Sino - US trade relaxation [37]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, attention should be paid to the supply of palm oil and the guidance of Sino - US soybean trade [38]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal prices may be boosted by oilseed futures prices, while rapeseed oil may continue its weak trend [39]. - For soybean No.1, attention should be paid to the performance of imported soybean trade and the policy guidance of domestic soybeans [40]. - Corn prices in Dalian may continue to run weakly at the bottom [41]. - Pig prices are likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [42]. - For eggs, it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the fourth quarter [43]. - Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - For sugar, attention should be paid to the subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [45]. - Apple prices are expected to remain high in the early sales stage, and attention should be paid to the subsequent warehousing situation [46]. - For timber, low inventory strongly supports the price, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48]. - In the stock index market, the market style should focus on the technology - growth sector, and the layout should be based on the direction of technological innovation and industrial upgrading [49]. - The yield curve steepening of treasury bonds is expected to come to an end [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Last week, international oil prices declined slightly, with Brent's December contract down 0.94%. The eight voluntary - production - cut countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [2]. - Precious Metals: On Friday, precious metals fluctuated. The Fed's internal disagreement on policy prospects, Sino - US trade relaxation, and the US government shutdown are affecting market sentiment [3]. - Copper: On Friday, domestic and foreign copper prices recovered some losses. The volume - price potential of Shanghai copper remains [4]. - Aluminum: On Friday, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. Macro - sentiment is positive, but the fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited resonance [5]. - Alumina: Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,800 yuan. It will follow the aluminum price [7]. - Zinc: The LME plans to limit near - month positions. The upside resistance of zinc at the 3,050 - dollar mark is large [8]. - Lead: The supply pressure of lead is increasing, but the cost support is still strong [9]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel prices are running weakly, with the center of gravity moving downwards [10]. - Tin: Last week, domestic and foreign tin prices fluctuated. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure at high levels. The futures price is rising, and the market is actively trading [12]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures price has risen significantly, driven by the planned capacity storage of leading enterprises [13]. - Industrial Silicon: The weekly production in Xinjiang has increased slightly, while that in Yunnan has declined due to the dry season [14]. - Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil): Steel prices fell on Friday night. The demand for thread and hot - rolled coil is improving, but the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains [15]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price rebounded last week. The supply is high, and the demand support is weakening [16]. - Coke: The coke price rose and then fell during the day. There is an expectation of a third price increase [17]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal price rose and then fell during the day. The overall inventory has increased slightly [18]. - Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron: The demand for both is supported by high iron - water production. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' negotiations [19][20]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". This week is an important observation period for spot freight rates [21]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost. The high - sulfur market has a multi - factor intertwined pattern, and the low - sulfur market is weak [22]. - Asphalt: The demand in the north is decreasing, and the commercial inventory is de - stocking faster [23]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The weekly commodity volume has decreased slightly, and the arrival volume has increased significantly [24]. - Urea: Urea prices are fluctuating narrowly. The market sentiment is boosted by industry meetings [25]. - Methanol: The methanol futures price has fallen significantly. The port inventory pressure is large [26]. - Pure Benzene: Last week, the price of pure benzene declined. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - Styrene: Styrene prices may continue to run weakly due to weak cost support and inventory concerns [28]. - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: The supply of propylene has increased slightly. The prices of polypropylene and plastic are under pressure [29]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX & PTA: The supply of PX and PTA is increasing. A reverse arbitrage strategy should be continued [31]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price of ethylene glycol follows the external market, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [32]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in mid - to - late November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass: Glass prices have limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the improvement in Shahe's spot market [34]. - Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber: Demand is slowly recovering, and it is advisable to pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price is falling. A short - selling strategy on rallies should be adopted in the long term [36]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: The price of Dalian soybean meal contract 2601 continued to be strong on Friday night. Attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of soybean imports from the US [37]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the supply of palm oil and Sino - US soybean trade [38]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil: Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may continue its weak trend [39]. - Soybean No.1: The price of soybean No.1 is slightly rising. Attention should be paid to the trade of imported soybeans and domestic policies [40]. - Corn: Dalian corn futures prices declined slightly on Friday night. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [41]. - Pig: Pig prices are likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [42]. - Egg: Egg prices are fluctuating. It is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton: US cotton prices are rising, and Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term [44]. - Sugar: International sugar supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apple: Apple prices are expected to remain high in the early sales stage [46]. - Timber: Timber prices are supported by low inventory [47]. - Pulp: Pulp prices are fluctuating narrowly. The port inventory is high, and the demand is general [48]. Financial Products - Stock Index: A - shares showed structural differentiation. The market style should focus on the technology - growth sector [49]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures are fluctuating strongly. The yield curve steepening is expected to end [50].