季报凸显分化，市场放量反弹：公募REITs2025Q3业绩总结及10月市场分析

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, utility - type assets performed best, rental - housing and consumer - type assets were stable, while warehousing & logistics and transportation - type assets were weak and differentiated, and the industrial park sector still had a large year - on - year decline, with only partial quarter - on - quarter decline narrowing; the energy sector also declined significantly overall [3]. - In October, the market rebounded with increasing trading volume, high - performance assets led the gains, the interest spread widened significantly, and the valuation recovered to above the 60th percentile [3]. - The premium rate space on the first - day listing narrowed, and the expansion and registration of Huaxia China Resources Youchao REIT were completed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weak - cycle Performance is Robust and Strong - cycle Sector is Generally Under Pressure - Except for the energy sector, "weak - cyclical" varieties had overall stable performance in Q3. Utility, consumer, and rental - housing sectors achieved year - on - year positive growth in revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount. The energy sector, affected by factors such as electricity price liberalization, seasonal fluctuations, and unit maintenance, generally saw a decline in performance (except for Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT) [8]. - In contrast, "strong - cyclical" assets were generally under pressure. The industrial park sector had a significant decline in performance, with EBITDA and distributable amount declining by over 10% year - on - year, and over 80% of individual bonds experiencing performance decline. The transportation sector's overall performance decline widened, while the overall decline in revenue and EBITDA of the warehousing & logistics sector was small and showed a converging trend [8]. 3.2 Sub - sector Analysis 3.2.1 Rental - housing - Rental - housing rents had little overall fluctuation but were slightly differentiated; the occupancy rate and collection rate remained at a high level. Xiamen Anju had continuous quarter - on - quarter rent growth for 4 quarters, while Chengtou Kuanting Rental - housing and Shekou Rental Housing had continuous rent declines. Beijing Baozhangfang's overall rent declined after expansion, and its collection rate slightly decreased in Q3 2025 [12]. - Xiamen Anju had excellent performance, with revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount showing year - on - year positive growth for 4 consecutive quarters, and its EBITDA profit margin was relatively high. Chengtou Kuanting had positive growth in revenue and EBITDA in the past 2 quarters, with a Q3 increase of 7% - 8%. Huaxia China Resources Youchao's revenue and EBITDA both declined year - on - year in Q3 [16]. 3.2.2 Utility - Shougang Biomass benefited from the expansion of kitchen waste sources and the improvement of power generation efficiency. The disposal volume of kitchen waste and the online power generation increased by 27.7% and 22.8% year - on - year respectively. Capital Water Service's Hefei project's sewage treatment fee increased by 2.9% year - on - year after the price adjustment approval. Shaoxing Water Supply's water supply in Q3 was significantly higher than that in Q1 - Q2 [17]. - Shougang Biomass's revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount increased by 12.4%, 20.0%, and 97.4% year - on - year respectively. Capital Water Service's revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount increased by 7.7%, 10.6%, and 30.1% year - on - year respectively. Except for Jinan Heating, which had no revenue in Q3, the financial indicators of Shougang Biomass, Capital Water Service, and Shaoxing Water Supply generally reached the highest levels in the past five quarters [22]. 3.2.3 Consumer - In the shopping mall segment, except for Bailian Consumer, whose rent declined by over 30% year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter in Q3 due to the low initial rent of the newly introduced anchor tenant, the rents of other shopping malls increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. In the outlet segment, the off - season characteristics were obvious in Q3, and the overall associated income declined. In the community business segment, Wumei Consumer's operation was stable. Huawei Agricultural Market leased part of its roof for the construction of a distributed photovoltaic power station and introduced new types of merchants [26]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue and EBITDA of shopping malls increased quarter - on - quarter. JINMAO Commercial's revenue increased by over 10% year - on - year. Except for Huawei Agricultural Market, whose distributable amount declined significantly quarter - on - quarter (- 15.1%), the distributable amount of other consumer REITs generally increased or remained flat year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [27]. 3.2.4 Warehousing & Logistics - In the market - oriented leasing segment, rents declined year - on - year across the board, and only Yantian Port and GLP improved quarter - on - quarter. Shenzhen International saw a decline in both volume and price. In the affiliated - party full - lease segment, rents and occupancy rates were relatively stable, and Jiuzhitong Medicine's pallet utilization rate improved quarter - on - quarter [31]. - Overall, the warehousing & logistics sector was cold, with only a few projects showing a slight quarter - on - quarter improvement. Only JD Warehousing and Jiuzhitong Medicine, which were affiliated - party full - lease projects, had a slight quarter - on - quarter increase in revenue and EBITDA. The EBITDA and distributable amount of Baowan Logistics, Waigaoqiao, and ESR Warehousing & Logistics declined by over 10% quarter - on - quarter [37]. 3.2.5 Energy - Except for TBEA New Energy, the settlement (online) electricity volume of the energy sector declined year - on - year in Q3. Different energy types had different reasons for the decline, such as the decrease in water inflow in the hydropower sector and the poor light resources in the photovoltaic sector in some regions [39][41]. - In terms of electricity price, the average settlement electricity price of Shenzhen Energy declined year - on - year in Q3. The electricity price of hydropower had large seasonal fluctuations. The electricity price of Jingneng Photovoltaic's Yulin project increased, while that of the Jingtai project declined. TBEA New Energy's electricity price remained stable. The electricity price of onshore wind power was differentiated [45]. - In Q3 2025, only TBEA New Energy achieved year - on - year growth in revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount. The performance of State Power Investment New Energy was under pressure due to the significant decline in power generation, and its distributable amount was negative. Shenzhen Energy's performance also declined significantly due to the decline in both volume and price of power sales [49]. 3.2.6 Industrial Park - In Q3 2025, 47% of industrial park REITs' occupancy rates dropped to the lowest levels in the past five periods or since listing, but the decline was small. Some projects' strategies of trading price for volume were effective. Most REITs' collection rates increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, with an average collection rate of 91.3% in Q3 [50]. - At the fund level, the revenue and EBITDA of industrial park REITs generally declined year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter in Q3. The distributable amount of industrial park REITs declined year - on - year across the board, and 44% increased quarter - on - quarter [52][57].