Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-03 09:20Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that Shanghai lead will experience oscillations, but the upward potential is limited. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation is 2,025 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars [3]. - The price difference between the 12 - 01 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,718 lots, up 663 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 85 lots, down 581 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 21,645 tons, unchanged [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 35,999 tons, down 334 tons; the LME lead inventory is 220,300 tons, down 3,875 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 17,225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 17,440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 26.48 dollars/ton, up 7.51 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,796 yuan, up 125 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the average operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points [3]. - The production of recycled lead in the current month is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the production of primary lead in the current week is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 2.5 kilotons, up 3.1 kilotons [3]. - The global lead ore production of ILZSG is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [3]. - The refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average price of the waste battery market is 9,969.64 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 2,124.23 points, up 26.19 points; the automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles [3]. - The new - energy vehicle production is 1.58 million vehicles, up 247,000 vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There were reports about a possible US military attack on Venezuela, which was later denied by Trump [3]. - Multiple Fed officials oppose interest - rate cuts, while Fed理事米兰 predicts a December rate cut [3]. - The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and relevant Chinese counter - measures will be adjusted [3]. - The US Department of Defense approves the provision of long - range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, with the final decision to be made by Trump [3]. 3.7 View Summary - Supply side: Primary lead production is expected to rise slightly due to smelter overhauls. Recycled lead supply may increase but is restricted by factors such as environmental protection transportation controls and scarce waste battery sources [3]. - Demand side: After the holiday impact, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded. The traditional consumption season and the expansion of some battery enterprises' businesses support lead demand, but the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure [3]. - Inventory: Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential growth in recycled lead production, inventory may change this week, and a slowdown in inventory depletion may hinder price increases [3].