Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-03 09:20Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils has strong resilience, apparent demand has increased and is higher than the same period last year. However, the support from macro positives has weakened, and at the same time, furnace materials have weakened, causing hot-rolled coils to operate weakly. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward. Operationally, it's recommended to be bearish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,295 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the position volume is 1,422,835 lots, down 47,384 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is -78,193 lots, down 10,918 lots. The HC1 - 5 contract spread is -9 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 128,537 tons, unchanged. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 75 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil output of sample steel mills is 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil inventory at sample steel mills is 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of automobiles is 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales are 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly production of air conditioners is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly production of household refrigerators is 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly production of household washing machines is 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller said that despite the risk of a government shutdown, the Fed will still obtain a large amount of data and should advance monetary policy based on data guidance. He further pointed out that all data indicate that the correct policy path currently is to continue to advance interest rate cuts. The Passenger Car Association disclosed that the preliminary estimate of new energy vehicle retail sales in October is about 1.32 million vehicles, and the penetration rate is expected to reach about 60%, possibly setting a new historical high [2]