Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-03 09:20Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The steel market is facing a mix of long - and short - term factors. The mainstream short - position holdings have increased more, and the market is under short - term pressure. The operation strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bearish trend, with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,919,017 lots, up 39,567 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 93,441 lots, down 27,034 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 66 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,640 tons, down 1,200 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,354 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 191 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 46.60%, up 1.21 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 15.41 million tons, up 660,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 0.50%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 13.90%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing is 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of October 31, 20 cities have introduced 26 real - estate market relaxation policies, and more cities may follow to improve and standardize construction design plans and calculation rules. The US Treasury Secretary said that the China - US trade agreement may be signed this week, and China is willing to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US relations [2].