美联储降息前景不明，利率底部回升

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - In October, the US consumer confidence index decreased to 94.6, which is higher than the forecast of 93.6 but lower than the revised previous value of 95.6, influenced by rising prices due to import tariffs and uncertainty in the job market [1][9] - As of the week ending October 24, EIA reported a significant drop in US crude oil inventories by 6.858 million barrels, exceeding the expected decline of 0.9 million barrels and the previous decline of 0.961 million barrels [1][9] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - On October 29, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4.00%, signaling continued monetary easing and announced the cessation of its balance sheet reduction process starting December 1 [2][10] - The Fed will reinvest all maturing Treasury securities and maintain a cap of approximately $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities, marking a shift from a "balance sheet reduction" phase to a "maintaining size" phase to address liquidity tightening in the dollar funding market [2][10] Group 3: Interest Rate Review - The US Treasury yields showed mixed movements with the 1-month yield decreasing by 6 basis points to 4.05%, while the 1-year yield increased by 12 basis points to 3.70%, reflecting the Fed's recent rate cut and market expectations [3][11] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut decreased from 85% to approximately 62%, influenced by mixed voting results and comments from Fed Chair Powell indicating that a rate cut is not guaranteed [3][11] Group 4: Other Asset Classes - In equity markets, Japan and South Korea led gains, with the Nikkei225 rising by 6.31% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 4.21%, driven by strong semiconductor and battery prices [21] - In commodities, agricultural products surged, with CBOT soybeans up by approximately 7.06%, while energy prices saw a slight decline, with Brent crude oil down by 1.32% due to concerns over oversupply [22] - The Russian ruble appreciated against the Chinese yuan by 1.44%, while other major currencies weakened against the yuan, reflecting varying economic conditions and central bank policies [23]