外围宏观扰动，橡胶宽幅波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "going long" for single - side trading and "waiting and seeing" for arbitrage [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely. Driven by macro - level and fundamental factors in the natural rubber market, rubber prices continued to rise. However, due to the impact of typhoons and heavy rainfall in overseas and domestic production areas, raw material supply was restricted, and processing plants' eagerness to purchase raw materials at higher prices strengthened cost - side support [6]. - Currently, raw material prices have strong support, mid - stream inventories are continuously decreasing, downstream demand remains stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved. In the short term, rubber prices may maintain a relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan and Hainan increased. In Thailand, although the northeast had normal supply growth, the south faced supply constraints due to heavy rainfall, and raw material prices rose. In Vietnam, raw material supply was tight due to excessive rainfall, and prices were firm [3]. - Demand: Neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rates will fluctuate slightly in the next period, and some enterprises may reduce production or conduct maintenance in November [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU on the SHFE decreased, while that of 20 - number rubber increased [3]. - Basis/Spread: Bullish. After the holiday, the spread between RU and mixed rubber widened, and the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR also widened [3]. - Profit: Bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex narrowed, while the loss of the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk latex improved [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - Commodity Market: Neutral. The suspension of relevant Sino - US tariff policies has reduced previous negative disturbances, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: Affected by macro and fundamental factors, rubber prices continued to rise. As of October 31, the RU main contract closed at 15,085 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 250 yuan/ton (-1.63%), and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,230 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 275 yuan/ton (-2.20%) [6]. - Spot Market: Spot prices rebounded and rose [9]. - Position: RU positions were low, and NR positions decreased. The spread between RU and NR widened [17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting raw material supply [40]. - Main Producing Countries' Output: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63]. - Main Producing Countries' Exports: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73]. - China's Imports: From January to September, China imported 4.7172 million tons of natural rubber (+19.65%). In September, the import volume increased significantly, and Thailand was the largest source country [86][92][99]. - Mid - stream Inventory: China's social inventory continued to decline. As of October 26, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber was 1.0389 million tons, a decline of 1% [100][108]. - Downstream Tire Demand: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the next period [109][117]. - Downstream Tire Inventory: Tire inventories in Shandong decreased slightly [118]. - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In September, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [126][136]. - Tire Exports: From January to September, China exported 7.28 million tons of rubber tires (+5%) [137][145]. - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk latex was in a loss state [147]. - Futures - Spot Spread: The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [168].