国泰君安期货PP：中期震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market experienced a partial decline. The downward movement of the PP futures affected the sentiment of the spot market. Some petrochemical plants reduced their prices by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, weakening cost support. Sellers slightly adjusted their prices, and downstream factories mainly consumed their previous inventory, showing a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [2]. - Previously, factors such as the trade war, oil prices, high supply, and low profits of downstream processed products put downward pressure on the PP trend. Recently, the deterioration of US - Russia relations led to an oil price rebound, and the market generally expected the trade war to end. With a temporary reduction in PP supply and stable demand, a short - term market rebound is reasonable. In the long - term, the downward - driving factors cannot be fundamentally resolved, so the market may stop falling in the short - term but show a weakening trend in the medium - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PP Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was [not clearly presented], with a daily decline of 1.21%. The trading volume was 294,656, and the open interest changed by 11,355 [1]. - Spreads: The basis of the 01 contract was - 90 (unit not clear), compared with - 121 the day before. The spread between the 01 - 05 contracts was - 84, compared with - 70 (the - 882 seems to be an error) the day before [1]. - Important Spot Prices: In the North China region, the price was 6430 - 6520 yuan/ton yesterday, compared with 6450 - 6590 yuan/ton the day before; in the East China region, it was 6500 - 6620 yuan/ton, compared with 6530 - 6630 yuan/ton the day before; in the South China region, it was 6470 - 6630 yuan/ton, compared with 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton the day before [1]. 3.2 Spot News The PP market had a partial decline. The downward movement of PP futures affected the spot market sentiment. Some petrochemical plants reduced prices, weakening cost support. Sellers adjusted prices slightly, and downstream factories mainly consumed previous inventory and were cautious [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis Previously, multiple factors caused downward pressure on the PP trend. Recently, the oil price rebound and expected end of the trade war, along with short - term supply reduction and stable demand, led to a short - term rebound. In the long - term, the downward - driving factors remain, so the market may be weakening in the medium - term [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The PP trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3].