Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The adjustment of public bond fund redemption fees may lead to a redemption scale of RMB 30 - 100 billion for credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds, with credit bonds accounting for RMB 20 - 70 billion and secondary perpetual bonds for RMB 10 - 30 billion. The expected redemption ratio of short - term pure bond funds is about 25% - 35%, that of medium - and long - term pure bond funds is about 5%, and that of passive index bond funds is about 1%. The combined redemption ratio of the three types of bond funds is about 3% - 10% [3]. - There is a positive correlation between the redemption scale of short - term and medium - and long - term pure bond funds and the upward range of credit bond and secondary perpetual bond yields and the widening range of credit spreads. The yields of credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds are more sensitive to the impact of fund liquidity when the redemption scale is small, and the marginal driving effect on yield increases weakens when the redemption scale expands [3]. - Considering the current low - interest rate volatile environment in the bond market, the upward range of short - end credit bond and secondary perpetual bond yields is expected to be about 15 - 25BP, and the spread widening range is about 5 - 15BP; the upward range of medium - and long - end credit bond and secondary perpetual bond yields is about 25 - 35BP, and the spread widening range is about 15 - 25BP. The current adjustment range of yields and spreads has not fully reflected the potential redemption pressure, and the risk of selling has not been fully exposed. The impact of the redemption pressure on yields and spreads is expected to be a phased increase within a controllable range [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Estimated Redemption Scale of Credit Bonds and Secondary Perpetual Bonds Held by Pure Bond Funds - The inclusion of bond - type funds in the scope of redemption fee regulations and the increase in overall redemption fee levels will weaken the short - term trading and liquidity management functions of bond funds. Short - term pure bond funds may face greater redemption pressure, while medium - and long - term pure bond funds and passive index bond funds may also be affected to some extent. Bond ETFs, inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds, and bank short - term wealth management products may undertake part of the funds withdrawn from pure bond funds [15]. - As of the end of June 2025, short - term pure bond funds held about RMB 1.28 trillion in bonds, with credit bonds accounting for 63.03% and financial bonds accounting for 19.12%; medium - and long - term pure bond funds held about RMB 7.76 trillion in bonds, with credit bonds accounting for about 23.27% and financial bonds accounting for about 22.33%; passive index bond funds held about RMB 1.67 trillion in bonds, with credit bonds accounting for 15.80% and financial bonds accounting for about 3.75%. The adjustment of public bond fund fees is expected to have a greater negative impact on the credit bond and financial bond sectors [18]. - According to different scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic), the estimated redemption scale of credit bonds is about RMB 231 - 576.6 billion, and that of secondary perpetual bonds is about RMB 101 - 220.5 billion [3][20][21][22][23]. 2. How to Transmit from Redemption Scale to Valuation Yield and Credit Spread - By analyzing the historical data of pure bond fund redemptions in the past three years, there is a significant positive correlation between the redemption scale of short - term and medium - and long - term pure bond funds and the upward range of credit bond and secondary perpetual bond yields and the widening range of credit spreads. The yields of credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds are more sensitive to the impact of fund liquidity when the redemption scale is small, and the marginal driving effect on yield increases weakens when the redemption scale expands [3][41]. - Applying the logarithmic regression model to the estimated redemption scale of credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds, in the optimistic scenario, the 1Y/AAA - grade credit bond valuation yield is expected to rise by 29 - 31BP, the credit spread to widen by 14 - 16BP, the 3Y/AAA - grade secondary perpetual bond valuation yield to rise by 24 - 26BP, and the credit spread to widen by 14 - 16BP; in the neutral scenario, the 1Y/AAA - grade and 5Y/AAA - grade credit bond valuation yields are expected to rise by 29 - 31BP and 33 - 35BP respectively, the credit spreads to widen by 14 - 16BP and 22 - 24BP respectively, the 3Y/AAA - grade and 7Y/AAA - grade secondary perpetual bond valuation yields to rise by 24 - 26BP and 29 - 31BP respectively, and the credit spreads to widen by 14 - 16BP and 15 - 17BP respectively; in the pessimistic scenario, the 1Y/AAA - grade and 5Y/AAA - grade credit bond valuation yields are expected to rise by 31 - 33BP and 35 - 37BP respectively, the credit spreads to widen by 15 - 17BP and 24 - 26BP respectively, the 3Y/AAA - grade and 7Y/AAA - grade secondary perpetual bond valuation yields to rise by 26 - 28BP and 31 - 33BP respectively, and the credit spreads to widen by 15 - 17BP and 18 - 20BP respectively [53]. - Since the release of the draft for comments, institutional investors have started to redeem pure bond funds. However, affected by factors such as the stock market trend, central bank policies, and market liquidity, the current adjustment range of credit bond and secondary perpetual bond yields and spreads has not fully reflected the potential redemption pressure. The risk of selling has not been fully exposed, and the market may still be in the early stage of redemption or in a wait - and - see state. In the current environment, the impact of redemption pressure on yields and spreads is expected to be a phased increase within a controllable range [4][55][56].
公募债基赎回费率调整如何影响信用债和二永债走势？
Soochow Securities·2025-11-03 09:35