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Xiangcai Securities·2025-11-03 09:23

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the superiority of the "dual low" strategy in the current market environment, particularly focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from a "de-involution" trend [4][5][29]. Monthly Tracking of Convertible Bonds - In October, the China Convertible Bond Index slightly outperformed the China All Share Index, with a decline of 0.11% compared to a 0.15% drop in the latter. Year-to-date, the Convertible Bond Index has risen by 16.99%, while the All Share Index has increased by 23.49% [11]. - The performance of convertible bonds varied by price category, with high-priced and mid-priced convertible bond indices falling by 2.72% and 0.75%, respectively, while low-priced bonds showed resilience with a 1.44% increase [13][22]. Sector Performance - In October, the energy and financial sectors saw increases in their convertible bond indices, while the technology sector experienced a downturn, with the information technology convertible bond index declining by 0.79% [22]. - The best-performing sectors included energy, financial, and industrial, with their respective convertible bond indices rising by 3.85%, 1.35%, and 1.31% [22]. Strategy Analysis - The "dual low" strategy demonstrated defensive advantages, with the Wind Dual Low Index rising by 0.63% in October, while the high-priced low-premium index fell by 3.4% [29]. - The report highlights the increasing risk of forced redemption for low-value convertible bonds, leading to a reduction in the number of available options for investors [4][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests constructing a dual low portfolio focused on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment, while avoiding high-priced technology stocks [4][32]. - For November, the recommended dual low portfolio consists of six selected convertible bonds, primarily in the power equipment sector, with an average bond price of 128 yuan and a conversion premium of 11% [36][35]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a shift in market style from high-priced sectors to low-priced sectors, particularly as the technology growth sector faces adjustment pressures. It suggests that "de-involution" sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries may continue to see upward momentum [37].