瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina's fundamentals may enter a stage of slightly reduced supply and relatively stable demand, with a suggestion of light - position short - long trading at low prices [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum might be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy could be in a situation of slowed supply and increasing demand, and light - position oscillating trading is advised [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract is 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,789 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,888 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 558,050 tons, up 98,525 tons [2] - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 21,065 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE are 51,117 tons, up 273 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,440 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,790 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina output in October is 799.90 million tons, up 7.42%; the national alumina start - up rate is 85.98%, up 3.05% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in October is 704.31 million tons, down 21.49%; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 46.85 million tons, up 18.12% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum in October is 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity in October is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.27%, up 0.16% [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products in October is 590 million tons, up 35.18 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 52 million tons, down 1 million tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in October is 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 10.65%, up 0.95%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.84%, up 0.65% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 12.75%, up 0.0049; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.42, up 0.1219 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, aims to guide financial institutions to improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy, especially interest rate policy, and study and reserve policy tools [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI is 49%, down 0.8 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage point; the composite PMI output index is 50%, down 0.6 percentage points [2] - Multiple Fed officials oppose interest rate cuts, expressing concerns about economic growth, inflation, and policy restrictions [2] - The CPC Central Committee proposes to expand two - way investment cooperation space, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce more detailed measures [2]