现实格局偏弱，钢矿承压下行：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Rebar: The main contract price weakened and declined by 0.96% daily, with increasing volume and open interest. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price fluctuated downward, recording a 0.60% daily decline, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, and the demand concerns have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Once the market operation logic switches to the industrial end, hot - rolled coils are prone to pressure and weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [4]. - Iron ore: The main contract price declined weakly, recording a 1.82% daily decline, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the fermentation of positive factors supports the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the supply of iron ore is high, and the demand is weakening. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the over - valued iron ore price will be under pressure to fall. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory Industry Dynamics - Real estate: In the first 10 months of 2025, the total sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises were 289.671 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. In October, the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7%. The overall market continued to bottom out. The land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises in the first 10 months was 783.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, but the growth rate narrowed compared with the first 9 months [6]. - Heavy - truck market: In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a year - on - year increase of about 40% and a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved seven consecutive months of year - on - year growth, with an average growth rate of 39% from April to October [7]. - Iron ore projects: In October 2025, 9 iron - ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province, including 3 iron ore mines, 4 enterprise investment project filings or [changes], 1 enterprise and institution industrial technological transformation project filing [change], and 1 mine development project (non - metal, non - coal mine) filing [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The national average price was 3,247 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [9]. - Hot - rolled coil: The national average price was 3,355 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 107.40 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars/ton [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,079 | - 0.96 | 1,150,576 | 164,721 | 1,919,017 | 39,567 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,295 | - 0.60 | 512,951 | 81,842 | 1,422,835 | - 47,384 | | Iron ore | 782.5 | - 1.82 | 406,726 | 100,948 | 534,930 | - 5,350 | [11] Related Charts - Steel inventory: Includes weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing historical data from multiple years [14][16][20][23]. - Iron ore inventory: Covers the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills, with historical data from multiple years [19][22][24]. - Steel mill production: Involves the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit - making ratio of steel mills, with historical data from multiple years [28][29][31]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 55,200 tons, and the inventory is high. The demand has improved seasonally, but it is still at a low level in recent years, and the improvement space is limited. With the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [35]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output increased by 11,000 tons, and the inventory reduction at a high level is limited. The demand is okay, but there are still concerns. Once the market logic switches to the industrial end, it is prone to pressure and weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [35]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The demand is declining, and the supply pressure is increasing. The over - valued iron ore price will be under pressure to fall. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [36].