Report Information - Report Title: [Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report] US Soybeans and US Soybean Meal Prices Rise, with External Market Performance Stronger than Domestic Market [1] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of US soybeans and US soybean meal increased, with the external market outperforming the domestic market. The price of CBOT soybeans was mainly influenced by the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The price of CBOT soybean meal was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and its low - level price advantage. The price of CBOT soybean oil declined due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation. The domestic soybean and soybean product markets were also affected by international market trends, as well as factors such as domestic supply and demand, inventory, and import and export conditions [9][13][20] Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean 11 - contract closed at 1100.00 cents per bushel, up 5.59% from the previous week, and the 01 - contract closed at 1115.00 cents per bushel, up 5.14%. The price increase was due to the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas was beneficial for harvesting, but the cumulative export inspection volume was still lower than the same period last year [9] 2. Soybean Meal - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean meal 12 - contract closed at 321.4 dollars per short - ton, up 9.36% from the previous week. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and the low - level price advantage [13] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean meal 01 - contract closed at 3021 yuan per ton, up 3.00%. The price increase was driven by the rise in CBOT soybean prices, but was restricted by the decline in Brazilian soybean premium quotes and high domestic soybean meal inventories [16] 3. Soybean Oil - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean oil 12 - contract closed at 48.62 cents per pound, down 3.32%. The price decline was due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation [20] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean oil 01 - contract closed at 8128 yuan per ton, down 0.81%. The price decline was affected by the fall in domestic competing vegetable oil prices and high domestic soybean oil inventories [23] II. Production Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Rainfall was mainly concentrated in the southern region, with slightly lower rainfall in the central - western region than normal, and the overall temperature was lower than normal [24][25] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to mainly occur in the southern region, and the temperature in the central part of the production area will be higher than normal [27] 2. Argentine Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Local rainfall in the main production areas was higher than normal, and the temperature was lower than normal [31] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal [33] III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - USDA drought monitoring report: As of the week of October 28, about 34% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% in the same period last year [38] - Export inspection: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline continued to widen. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons. As of the week of October 24, 2024, it was 2,630,651 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.91% [40] - D4 RINs price: As of October 31, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 100 cents, unchanged from October 24 [43] - Other important news: The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on issues such as tariff cancellation, export control suspension, and expansion of agricultural product trade through consultations in Kuala Lumpur [45] 2. Brazilian Soybeans - Soybean production forecast: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production range from 1.75 billion to 1.8 billion tons [47] - Soybean sowing: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The sowing progress in some states such as Mato Grosso and Parana was also reported [47][48] - Export sales: Anec lowered the October export forecast to 7 million tons. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the cumulative export volume was 99.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.26% [50][52] - Soybean premium: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium declined [55] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 28.16 dollars per ton, down from 28.87 dollars per ton on October 24 [58] 3. Argentine Soybeans - Farmer sales: As of the week of October 22, 2025, the pre - sale of 2025/26 soybeans by Argentine farmers increased compared to the previous week [60] - Argentine soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 9.08 dollars per ton, down from 18.88 dollars per ton on October 24 [65] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - China's imported soybean procurement progress: The procurement progress data for the week of October 28, 2025, was provided [68] - Port and oil - mill soybean inventories: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from the previous week, and the oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons [70] - Imported soybean arrivals and crushing: In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume was about 2.145 million tons, and in the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the actual crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.99% [72] - Soybean oil trading volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the weekly trading volume was 80,700 tons, an increase from the previous week [74] - Soybean oil production and apparent consumption: In the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the production was 416,900 tons, and in the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the apparent consumption was 411,700 tons [76] - Soybean oil inventory: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.2503 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons from the previous week [80] 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - Soybean meal production and apparent consumption: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the production was 1.7802 million tons, a decrease of 90,100 tons from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the apparent consumption was 1.7918 million tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons from the previous week [82] - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory and feed - mill physical inventory days: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [85] - Soybean meal trading volume and pick - up volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 558,900 tons, an increase of 3.16% from the previous week, and the pick - up volume was 981,800 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week [88] - Downstream demand: The losses in pig - breeding and piglet - purchasing breeding profits continued to narrow. The live - pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio increased [91] - Soybean meal warehouse receipt quantity: As of October 31, 2025, the registered quantity of Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal warehouse receipts was 42,332 lots [93] V. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Product Spread Situations - Soybean oil basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of first - grade soybean oil in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [97][98] - Soybean meal basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [100][102] - Product spread: Data on the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the ratios of soybean oil to soybean meal and corn to soybean meal were presented [104][105] 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal FOB were presented [108][110][112] 3. CFTC Positioning - The net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds were presented [114][115]
美豆、美豆粕价格上涨，外盘走势强于内盘
Guo Fu Qi Huo·2025-11-03 10:28