TongQingLou Catering (SH:605108) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-03 10:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 566 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%, and reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -42 million yuan, marking a transition to loss [2][6] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 1.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.66%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.2 million yuan, down 63.79% year-on-year [6] - The company's three-pronged strategy is taking shape, with its restaurant, hotel, and food businesses complementing each other, focusing on social dining and accommodation experiences that align with consumer demand for value [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company faced revenue decline due to the "ban on alcohol" affecting July's performance and the misalignment of the Mid-Autumn Festival, leading to a traditional off-peak season [2][6] - The company’s net profit turned negative due to the opening of new hotels and increased financial expenses, with new store losses exceeding 20 million yuan in Q3 [2][6] - The gross margin decreased by 6.95 percentage points to 10.42% in Q3 2025, with overall expense ratios increasing [2][6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue recovery in Q4 2025 as the impact of the "ban on alcohol" diminishes and the peak banquet season approaches [2][6] - The three-pronged strategy is expected to drive long-term growth through store expansion and product innovation in the food business [2][6] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 155 million, 275 million, and 391 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32X, 18X, and 13X [2][6]