双焦期货周度报告：供应难有起色，三轮提涨开启-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal market showed a strong trend, while the coke price remained stable. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and the third round was initiated [2][4]. - On the supply side, production was affected by factors such as the completion of annual tasks in some mines, safety and environmental inspections, and the structural adjustment of imported Mongolian coal, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. On the demand side, macro - favorable factors pushed up the market price, and the steel inventory decreased significantly. The probability of the third round of coke price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton being implemented was relatively high [2]. - Overall, the domestic coking coal supply was subject to continuous disturbances, the import supplement was limited, and the spot transactions still showed more increases than decreases. The coking coal spot market was stable with a strong trend, and the coking coal fundamentals were still healthy. It was expected that the coking coal price would fluctuate in the short term [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal market was strong, and the coke price was stable. The second round of coke price increase by mainstream steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places was implemented on Monday, with a range of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The third round was initiated on Wednesday, and the steel mills had not responded yet [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 28, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released, aiming to optimize and upgrade traditional industries [6]. - The upgraded protocol of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 was officially signed, expanding cooperation in emerging fields and promoting regional trade facilitation [6]. - China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from loss to profit, with a profit of 97.34 billion yuan [6]. - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the inventory of iron ore in seven major ports in Australia and Brazil continued to decline [7]. - The "Action Plan for Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Iron and Steel Industry in Henan Province" was issued, setting goals for the iron and steel industry in Henan Province by the end of 2025 and 2027 [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, production was affected by factors such as the completion of tasks in some mines, safety and environmental inspections, and the structural adjustment of imported Mongolian coal, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. Although the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal recovered this week, the main coking coal resources in the market were still in short supply [2]. - On the demand side, macro - favorable factors pushed up the market price, and the steel inventory decreased significantly. The coke initiated the third round of price increase, and the probability of the increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton being implemented was relatively high [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Due to frequent inspections in the main production areas and production reduction in some coal mines, the supply was difficult to increase [30]. - Demand: The coke production was basically flat month - on - month, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream and intermediate links remained, and the inventory of upstream coal mines had decreased to a low level in recent years [30]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, it was mainly range - bound operation; for inter - period arbitrage, it was mainly to wait and see; for coking profit, it was also mainly to wait and see [2][30].