Minsheng Securities·2025-11-03 10:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD, with a target price of 100.79 CNY per share [5]. Core Insights - BYD's wholesale sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 442,000 units in October, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.1% but a month-on-month increase of 11.5% [1]. - The company is making progress in high-end market penetration and international expansion, with October's NEV wholesale sales benefiting from improved terminal demand and the launch of several new models [1][3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 866.47 billion CNY, 981.28 billion CNY, and 1,104.53 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 37.25 billion CNY, 47.46 billion CNY, and 58.59 billion CNY [4][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October, BYD's NEV wholesale sales were 437,000 units, down 12.7% year-on-year but up 11.1% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to October reached 3.702 million units, an increase of 13.9% year-on-year [1]. - The sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles in October were 214,000 units, down 31.1% year-on-year but up 14.0% month-on-month, while pure electric vehicle sales were 223,000 units, up 17.4% year-on-year and 8.5% month-on-month [1]. High-End Market Development - The launch of the Tang SUV and the recent management adjustments in the Tengshi brand aim to enhance brand positioning and service quality, addressing previous shortcomings in high-end service ecosystems [2]. - The Fangchengbao Ti 7 model, launched in September, has received over 10,000 orders in its first week, contributing to the brand's upward sales trajectory [2]. International Expansion - BYD's export sales in October reached 84,000 units, a significant increase of 169.0% year-on-year and 17.8% month-on-month, with total exports from January to October amounting to 781,000 units, up 137.3% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expanding its international footprint with new factories in Brazil and plans for additional facilities in Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance profitability in Europe and Southeast Asia [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects a revenue growth rate of 29.0% for 2024, followed by 11.5% in 2025, 13.3% in 2026, and 12.6% in 2027. The net profit is expected to decline by 7.5% in 2025 before recovering in subsequent years [4][22].