燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：天气转冷美国、中国气价上涨，欧洲燃气发电出力下降气价回落-20251103

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that colder weather has led to an increase in gas prices in the US and China, while European gas generation output has decreased, resulting in a price drop in Europe [1][4] - It emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the potential for demand growth in 2025, driven by supply optimization and cost management by gas companies [1][4] Price Tracking - As of October 31, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 11.6%, while European TTF prices decreased by 6.3%. The prices for East Asia JKM and China's LNG also saw slight declines [9][14] - The report notes that the average daily gas generation in Europe fell by 7% week-on-week and 5.1% year-on-year, reaching 829.3 GWh [18] Supply and Demand Analysis - The US gas market saw a week-on-week increase in storage levels by 740 billion cubic feet, totaling 38,820 billion cubic feet, which is a 0.5% increase year-on-year [16] - In Europe, gas consumption from January to July 2025 was 2,654 billion cubic meters, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [18] - Domestic gas prices in China rose by 3.1% week-on-week, with total apparent consumption from January to September 2025 increasing by 0.7% year-on-year to 3,188 billion cubic meters [20][25] Pricing Progress - The report indicates that 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [34] - The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector [34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost advantages and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Xin'ao Energy and Kunlun Energy, which have attractive dividend yields [1][4] - It also suggests monitoring companies that can mitigate the impact of tariffs on US LNG imports, such as New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [1][4] Important Announcements - The report mentions that the US LNG import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [43] - It also notes that the European Parliament has agreed to provide more flexibility regarding gas storage targets, allowing for a deviation of 10% from the 90% storage goal [47]