固收周报：关注指导区间内的配置机会-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is generally in an oscillating and favorable situation in the short - term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. The allocation value of the 10 - year bond around 1.8% continues to emerge. It is recommended to increase positions on rallies, and actively seize short - term opportunities when a significant pulse of 2 - 4BP or more occurs in a single day [2][4]. - After the cross - month period, the bond market's capital supply is likely to face limited pressure under the central bank's support. The strong positive of the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the accelerated debt - resolution leading to the increased supply of government bonds still leave room for the market to bet on loose monetary policy. However, changes in risk appetite and the upcoming implementation of the new public - offering fee regulations may cause short - term fluctuations in the bond market [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market yields declined overall this week (10/27 - 10/31). As of 10/31, the yields of 30Y, 10Y, and 1Y treasury bonds changed by - 6BP, - 4.5BP, and - 8BP respectively, closing at 2.14%, 1.80%, and 1.38%. The term spreads of 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y changed by - 1.5BP and 3.5BP respectively, closing at 35BP and 41BP [1]. - The decline in the 10Y yield was due to factors such as the market's risk - aversion sentiment under Sino - US trade frictions, the central bank's announcement of restarting open - market treasury bond trading, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy [6]. 2. Next Week's Bond Market Outlook and Strategy (1) Bond Market Outlook - Fundamentals: Production indicators showed differentiation, real - estate transactions had different year - on - year performances, and most price sectors rebounded. Production indicators mostly declined, demand on the consumer side mostly fell, and real - estate transactions varied. The price index rebounded this week, with a month - on - month increase ranging from 0.4% to 1.6% [25][40]. - Supply: From 10/27 - 11/2, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds declined. The issuance of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, local bonds was 2706.82 billion yuan, and inter - bank certificates of deposit was 7349.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 8930.16 billion yuan compared with last week. The issuance progress of local bonds reached 89.7%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds and new general bonds were 90.4% and 86.3% respectively [54]. - Funding: From 10/27 - 10/31, the central bank net - injected 12008 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase and 2000 billion yuan of MLF this month. The funding situation fluctuated and tightened marginally. It is expected that after the cross - month period, the funding situation will likely return to equilibrium [60]. (2) Bond Market Strategy - Next week, attention should be paid to four aspects: the return of funds to equilibrium after the cross - month period, the situation of subsequent treasury bond trading and further monetary operations under loose monetary policy, the impact of changes in risk appetite on the bond market driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment, and the impact of the new public - offering fee regulations [74]. - The bond market is favorable in the short - term. It is necessary to grasp the key position of 1.8%. Although the Sino - US consultations reached an agreement at the end of October, the market sentiment was not significantly boosted. The new public - offering fee regulations may cause short - term negative feedback, but the probability of substantial large - scale redemptions disturbing the market is currently limited [2][78]. 3. Next Week's Open - Market Operations and Financial Calendar - Open - market operations: The net injection (withdrawal) situation in the past four weeks and the next four weeks is provided, including reverse - repurchase and MLF operations. For example, this week (2025/10/31), the net injection was 14,008 billion yuan [79]. - Financial calendar: Information on local - government bond issuance, certificate - of - deposit maturity, reverse - repurchase maturity, MLF maturity, tax - payment weeks, and reserve - payment weeks from November 3rd to November 9th is provided [79].