银河期货航运日报-20251103

Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The long - term filling of mainstream shipping companies is good, but the spot market cargo collection is average. The spot price difference among shipping companies has widened, and the market continues to play a game on the subsequent freight rate trend. The EC market maintains a volatile trend. On November 3rd, EC2512 closed at 1851.7 points, up 2.64% from the previous day's closing price. On October 31st, the SCFI European line reported $1344/TEU, up 7.9% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1208.71 points after the market today, down 7.9% month - on - month, with the spot decline slightly exceeding market expectations [7]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. It is expected that the spot freight rates from November to December are expected to gradually increase, and shipping companies are expected to continue to announce price increases. From the fundamental perspective, on the demand side, shipments from November to December are expected to gradually improve, and the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm needs to be concerned. On the supply side, from October to December 2025 and January 2026, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports is 233,600/266,200/293,900/296,100 TEU respectively. After the China - US meeting, the tariff reduction and the extension of the 301 port service fee require tracking of the shipping companies' cargo collection performance [8]. - Unilateral trading strategy: The market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance. It is expected that there will be short - term volatility to determine the extent of the price increase. Temporarily stay on the sidelines. Arbitrage strategy: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Industry News - Since November 10, 2025, the compound tariff rate on Chinese - imported goods imposed by the US will be reduced by 10%, and the current suspension period of additional tariffs on China will be extended to November 10, 2026 (the current 10% benchmark tariff rate remains unchanged during the suspension period) [11]. - The US will extend the validity period of some "Section 301" tariff exemption measures originally due to expire on November 29, 2025, to November 10, 2026 [11]. - Since November 10, 2025, the US will suspend the implementation of the policy of "expanding the scope of end - user control for related parties of specific list entities" for one year [11]. - Since November 10, 2025, the US will suspend the implementation of measures taken based on the "Section 301" investigation of China's shipbuilding industry for one year. During this period, the US will continue consultations with China in accordance with Article 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and maintain historical cooperation with South Korea and Japan in revitalizing the US shipbuilding industry [11]. Market Data Futures Market - For EC2512, the closing price is 1851.7, up 47.7 points or 2.64% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 18,824 lots (down 68.37%) and an open interest of 29,320 lots (down 6.52%). For EC2602, the closing price is 1592.2, up 38.6 points or 2.48%, with a trading volume of 5,040 lots (down 55.74%) and an open interest of 18,781 lots (up 1.77%). Similar data are provided for other contracts such as EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 [6]. - In the month - spread structure, for example, the spread between EC12 and EC02 is 260, up 9.1 points; the spread between EC12 and EC04 is 667, up 24.4 points [6]. Container Freight Rates - The SCFIS European line index is 1208.71 points, down 7.92% week - on - week and 46.48% year - on - year; the SCFIS US West line index is 1267.15 points, up 14.43% week - on - week and down 54.40% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1550.70 points, up 10.49% week - on - week and down 29.04% year - on - year. Other routes' freight rates and their changes are also presented [6]. Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract is $60.49 per barrel, up 0.87% week - on - week and down 12.26% year - on - year; the price of Brent crude oil near - month contract is $64.58 per barrel, up 0.86% week - on - week and down 11.1% year - on - year [6].