造纸产业风险管理日报-20251103

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, pulp futures prices showed a wide - range oscillation, while offset paper futures prices opened with a significant increase and then maintained an oscillation. In the spot market, pulp prices in some paper mills increased slightly, and the supply - side pressure eased due to partial mill maintenance. The downstream paper - using开工率 (operating rates) showed mixed trends, and cultural paper consumption did not continue the positive year - on - year growth in August. Port inventories remained relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, some companies raised their quotes, which was favorable for futures prices. Overall, pulp and offset paper may be relatively oscillatory or slightly bullish in the short term [4]. - For pulp, the strategy is to go long at low prices or wait and see in the futures market, and sell out - of - the - money put options on far - month contracts in the options market. For offset paper, it is recommended to wait and see in both the futures and options markets [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - Price Forecast: The monthly price range for pulp is predicted to be 4750 - 5350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.19% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 16.95%. For offset paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 7.96% and a historical percentile of 39.39% [3]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For companies with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 5400 - 5500 and OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (e.g., SP2601C5300 and OP2601C4400) when volatility is appropriate to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [3]. - Procurement Management: For paper - making enterprises with low inventory, they can buy pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 4950 - 5050 and OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (e.g., SP2512P4850 and OP2601P4050) when volatility is appropriate to reduce procurement costs and lock in buying prices [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction - Futures Price Movement: Pulp futures prices oscillated widely, and offset paper futures prices opened higher and then oscillated [4]. - Spot Price: Pulp spot prices in some regions increased by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, and some offset paper companies raised their quotes by 100 - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side pressure eased due to mill maintenance, downstream operating rates showed mixed trends, cultural paper consumption did not continue the growth in August, and port inventories were relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, price increases by some companies were favorable for futures prices, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Paper companies raised the quotes of various types of paper, the Fed has a rate - cut expectation, and overseas broad - leaf pulp production shifted, reduced, and prices rose [7][12] 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - There is a possibility of a decrease in overseas shipping costs, port inventories are high and difficult to reduce, and downstream demand is weak during the peak season [12] 3.5 Basis and Price Difference - Pulp Basis: The daily and weekly changes in pulp basis for different varieties and contracts are provided, and the seasonal chart of pulp basis (Shandong Yinxing) is also presented [9][10]. - Offset Paper Basis: The daily and weekly changes in offset paper basis for different contracts are provided [9][10]. - Futures Price and Spread: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes, and price differences of pulp and offset paper futures contracts are given [15]. - Spot Price and Regional Spread: The spot prices and regional spreads of pulp and offset paper are provided [16].