银河期货甲醇月报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the methanol market will continue its downward trend due to persistent high - inventory pressures. The supply will remain relatively abundant, with domestic coal - to - methanol production maintaining high profitability and imports expected to reach over 140 million tons. Meanwhile, demand growth is limited, with no significant increase in MTO demand and traditional demand showing no bright spots under a mediocre macro - economic background [4][5][95]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Foreword Summary 1. Comprehensive Analysis - In November, the peak coal - using season for summer ends, coal prices are expected to decline, but the decline is limited due to downstream restocking. Coal - to - methanol profits will be maintained, and domestic methanol operating rates will continue to hit new highs. Iranian installations are stable, and imports in November are estimated to reach 145 million tons, with slow destocking of port inventories. Overall demand in November has no significant increase, and traditional demand has no bright spots in a mediocre macro - environment [4][95]. 2. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral Trading: The methanol price will continue to decline due to high - inventory pressure, with a lower limit of 2050 yuan/ton [5][6][95]. - Arbitrage: For inter - period arbitrage, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in the medium - to - long term as imports recover and MTO has negative feedback. For cross - variety arbitrage, focus on the opportunity to repair the PP - 3MA spread in the medium - to - long term [9][95]. II. Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In October 2025, domestic mainstream methanol spot prices were volatile and weak. Macroeconomic factors such as the weak US economy, the Fed's first interest - rate cut, and eased tariff conflicts had some support for domestic commodities. However, after the "anti - involution" policy influence faded, methanol futures returned to fundamentals, and with record - high port inventories, the price continued to decline. Internationally, the methanol price was also weak due to factors like high US supply and weak overall demand [10][11][27]. 2. Supply Analysis - New Capacity in 2024: China's methanol production capacity increased by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output expected to reach 75 million tons. The actual new production capacity in 2024 was only 3 million tons, and new projects involved various production processes, with a significant proportion of coke - oven gas - to - methanol projects [30]. - New Capacity in 2025: The planned new production capacity is 10.1 million tons, but the actual new production capacity for external sales is only 1.9 million tons due to downstream - supporting facilities. It is expected that the production capacity will increase by about 3% year - on - year, and the total output will reach 85 million tons [37]. - Coal Price and Profit in October: Coal prices first rose and then fell in October, and coal - to - methanol profits narrowed but remained high. It is expected that coal - to - methanol profits will remain high in November [39]. - Operating Rate in October: The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, with the overall domestic methanol operating rate at 85.65% at the end of October, up 5% from the previous month and 1% from the same period last year. The coal - single - alcohol operating rate reached 94.48%, up 6% from the previous month [42]. - Coal Price and Supply in November: Coal prices are expected to be weak but with limited decline in November due to factors such as increased coal production in major producing areas, slow destocking of power - plant inventories, and reduced coal imports. Domestic methanol supply will remain abundant [48]. - Enterprise Inventory in November: As maintenance devices return in November, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase slightly, and enterprise inventories are expected to gradually accumulate [51]. 3. November Imports Expected to Exceed 1.4 Million Tons - January - October Imports: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 9.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. It is estimated that imports in October were 1.45 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5% [55]. - Foreign New Capacity: In 2024, international new production capacity slowed down, mainly in the US and Malaysia. In 2025, Iran is expected to add 1.65 million tons/year and 1.65 million tons/year of methanol production capacity, and other countries are also exploring coal - to - methanol development [61][64]. - Iranian Installations and Imports in November: Some Iranian installations are shut down, with daily production dropping from 40,000 tons to around 35,000 tons. Iranian shipments in October were 920,000 tons, and imports in November are expected to be 1.45 million tons [66]. - Port Inventory and MTO: In October, Iranian shipments accelerated, imports rebounded, and MTO recovered, but port destocking was slow. As of the end of October, the total port inventory was 1.51 million tons, and the available tradable port inventory was 880,000 tons [70][72]. 4. Limited Demand Growth in November and Little Macro - level Change - Macroeconomic Situation: In October, trade and geopolitical conflicts interfered with the domestic macro - economy. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and demand [75]. - MTO New Installations in November: There are no new MTO installations expected to be put into production in November. The planned 1.45 - million - ton MTO installations in the second half of 2025 are expected to be postponed to the fourth quarter [80]. - MTO Installation Elimination Pressure: Some MTO installations, such as those of Changzhou Fude and Ningbo Fude, face elimination pressure due to long - term losses. From an industrial - structure perspective, Sierbang and Xingxing are most likely to exit or operate at low loads [84]. - Traditional Downstream Demand in November: The fundamentals of traditional methanol downstream sectors are diverse. The demand for formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, etc., is weak, with low operating rates. The fundamentals of acetic acid, MTBE, etc., remain resilient, but overall, traditional downstream demand is difficult to increase in November [90][93]. III. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 1. Comprehensive Analysis - In November, the coal - to - methanol supply will remain abundant, with coal prices expected to decline but with limited decline. Imports are estimated to reach 1.45 million tons, and port inventories will be slowly destocked. Overall demand has no significant increase, and traditional demand has no bright spots [95]. 2. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral Trading: The methanol price will continue to decline, with a lower limit of 2050 yuan/ton [95][97]. - Arbitrage: For inter - period arbitrage, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in the medium - to - long - term. For cross - variety arbitrage, focus on the opportunity to repair the PP - 3MA spread in the medium - to - long - term [95].