每日核心期货品种分析-20251103

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on November 3, 2025. Some commodities like rapeseed meal and SC crude oil rose, while others such as BR rubber and methanol declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to various factors such as supply - side changes, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical events [6][7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on November 3, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Rapeseed meal rose over 4%, and many commodities including SC crude oil and LU fuel oil rose over 1%. On the other hand, BR rubber fell over 3%, and methanol and soda ash fell over 2%. In the stock index futures and bond futures markets, there were also different degrees of rise and fall. In terms of capital flow, some contracts like Shanghai copper 2512 had capital inflows, while others such as Shanghai gold 2512 had capital outflows [6][7]. b) Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - Copper: The price of Shanghai copper opened flat and closed higher. The shortage of copper concentrate and production cuts in the smelting end make copper production tend to decline. Although the short - term price was affected by the Fed's statement and domestic PMI data, the long - term trend is still strong [9][11]. - Lithium Carbonate: It opened low and moved high, with prices in a narrow - range shock. The supply side is growing moderately, and the demand side is strong. The inventory has been continuously reduced, indicating a tight supply - demand pattern. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the upstream [12]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the supply is in an oversupply pattern, factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela limit Russian oil exports. The price is expected to fluctuate in the near future [13][14]. - Asphalt: The supply side has a slight reduction in production, and the downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. Considering the supply - demand situation and the trend of crude oil prices, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [15]. - PP: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply side has new production capacity and some device overhauls. The cost is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. The demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [17]. - Plastic: The start - up rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream demand is affected by the season. There is new production capacity on the supply side. Although the demand in the peak season is not as good as expected, the future demand of agricultural film may bring some support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply side has an increase in start - up rate, and the downstream start - up rate is still at a low level. The export is expected to weaken, and the inventory pressure is still large. Considering various factors, it is expected to fluctuate in the near future [20]. - Coking Coal: The price opened low and closed high with a decline. The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The profit of coke enterprises is negative, and the demand of steel mills is expected to recover. The supply - demand balance pattern is maintained, and the upward trend remains unchanged [21][22]. - Urea: It opened low and fluctuated weakly. The production has recovered rapidly, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The downstream demand is mainly for wheat fertilizer and compound fertilizer winter storage, and the inventory is in the process of de - stocking but still in the accumulation cycle. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [23].