贵金属月度策略报告：避险回调降息仍存多空胶着待势而发-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the gold price has more than doubled, driven by factors such as safe - haven and interest - rate cut expectations. Recently, the safe - haven logic has corrected, and the interest - rate cut logic has slowed down, leading to precious metals entering a high - level consolidation phase. [5][9] - The long - term upward trend of precious metals may continue as the economic system restructuring drives the currency system restructuring. However, there are also factors such as the rebound of the opportunity cost of holding gold and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut policy. [6][39] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, the gold price has more than doubled, with safe - haven and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the safe - haven logic has corrected, and the interest - rate cut logic has slowed down, causing precious metals to return to high - level consolidation. [5][9] - Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates in this bull market. The impact of the safe - haven logic on gold is more significant, and a correction in the safe - haven factor will have a greater impact. [5][12] - In previous bull markets, the volatility of silver was greater than that of gold. In recent years, the average increase of silver has been lower than that of gold, significantly dragged down by its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has continuously made up for losses, with its increase exceeding that of gold again. [5][13] 3.2 Evolution of Precious Metals Investment Logic - From the overall research framework of precious metals, safe - haven events are often the trigger for market movements, and the final trend is jointly dominated by monetary and commodity attributes. [15] - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have diverged significantly. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between them and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. [18] - In terms of interest - rate comparison among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down recently, and the interest - rate spread expectation has declined from its high level. [19] - Currently, there are more uncertainties in the market's expectation of whether the Fed will cut interest rates within the year. The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has corrected from its high level, and the future pace of interest - rate cuts will significantly slow down. [23] - In terms of inflation comparison, the inflation of major economies has been generally mild recently, and the inflation pressure from the trade war has not emerged. [26] - The IMF's latest forecast in October 2025 shows that the global economic growth rate will slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.1% in 2026. It is expected that the US economic growth rate will be 2.0% and 2.1% in the next two years, an upward adjustment of 0.1 percentage point compared with the July forecast. [32] - The expected deficits of government bonds in major economies are high, the supply is increasing, and the yields are generally rising. The global debt problem further promotes the risk pricing of precious metals. [36] 3.3 Future Trend Outlook for Precious Metals - The restructuring of the economic system drives the restructuring of the currency system. As a super - sovereign currency, the long - term upward trend of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. [39] - In the "de - dollarization" process, the proportion of the US dollar in the global central bank's foreign exchange reserves and international payments has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is a long - term process. [41] - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has continued to decline recently, indicating that the risk of a US economic recession still exists. The US - Europe interest - rate spread has declined from its high level, and the US - China interest - rate spread has significantly narrowed. [43] - The real yield of US Treasury bonds has rebounded after encountering resistance in its decline, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend, but the support near the lower - break level is still strong. [45] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, the VIX of the S&P 500 is at an ultra - low level in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has decreased after Trump took office. [46] - In terms of the capital side, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC positions have recently declined from their high levels. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have continuously reduced their positions since 2021, but there has been a recent trend of increasing positions. [49] - The net long positions of Shanghai Gold futures companies have recently increased rapidly, while those of Shanghai Silver are still at a relatively low level. [52] - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less suppressed by high prices, and the investment demand from the private sector and central banks still has potential. [59] - The World Silver Association indicates that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) in 2025. [61] - Technically, London gold is under short - term upward pressure, showing weak consolidation in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 4080 (about 935 for the Shanghai Gold main contract) and the support at 3730 (about 855 for Shanghai Gold). [6] - London silver is under short - term upward pressure, showing strong consolidation in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 50 (about 11,680 for the Shanghai Silver main contract) range and the effectiveness of the support at 44 (about 10,000 for Shanghai Silver). [6] - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 83.12% percentile in the past 45 years, with an average of 66.49. Recently, with the correction of the safe - haven factor and the slowdown of interest - rate cut expectations, the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue its downward trend. [68]