银河期货农产品日报-20251103

Group 1: Market Information - Fuji apple price index dropped from 107.61 to 107.18, a decrease of 0.43 [2] - The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits rose from 7.04 to 7.10, an increase of 0.06 [2] - Futures prices of AP01, AP05, and AP10 decreased by 134, 111, and 70 respectively [2] Group 2: Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from last week [4] - In September 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.97 tons, a 17.85% decrease from the previous month and a 1.10% decrease year - on - year; the cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 10.81 tons, a 19.49% increase year - on - year [4] - In September 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 7.08 tons, a 3.50% increase from the previous month and a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [4] - The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from last week [5] - The mainstream transaction price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was stable; the price of Qixia apples in Shandong was stable for high - quality goods and slightly declined for general goods [6] Group 3: Trading Logic - New - season apples have a low excellent - fruit rate due to weather, with small fruit diameters, high proportions of water cracks and mold, resulting in low warehouse - receipt production rates and high costs [7] - Apples are prone to deterioration after storage due to disease, increasing preservation difficulty and causing concerns about short shelf - lives for long - term delivery [7] - Merchants face high costs and difficulties in purchasing high - quality apples, and the expected cold - storage volume is low, so the spot price is likely to remain high [7] Group 4: Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, the recent trend of apples is strong, especially for far - month contracts [10] - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12]