现货以稳为主，大小码价差走强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for supply, demand, profit, and price - volume aspects of eggs are all neutral [4] Report's Core View - This month, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises dropped significantly, the decline in the age of culled chickens slowed down, the price of chicken chicks decreased slightly, and the price difference between large and small eggs first decreased and then increased [4] - Due to weather factors, storage is convenient. The breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices, while the trading side has sufficient inventory. Both buyers and sellers are highly wait - and - see, resulting in an oscillating egg price pattern. Seasonal rules suggest that in winter, when prices fall, stockpiling provides a bottom, and when prices rise, supply acts as a restraint. Egg prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase [4] - Recently, the price difference between large and small eggs has strengthened. This may be because the breeding side is accelerating the culling of older laying hens, leading to a decline in large - egg production capacity. Meanwhile, the number of newly opened laying hens, mostly imported chicken breeds, is increasing, and this trend is expected to continue in November [4] - This month, the sales volume in major sales areas and the shipping volume in major production areas first rose and then fell. The inventory in the circulation and production links fluctuated slightly and was higher than the average of the past four years [4] - Downstream demand is stable. Traders mostly purchase as they sell, with little change in inventory. They generally follow the market and have low enthusiasm for active inventory building, stocking, and replenishment [4] - This month, the breeding profit fluctuated slightly and is currently near the break - even line, with the profit level being the lowest in the same period of the past four years [4] - This month, the egg basis decreased slightly. Currently, the near - term futures contracts are at par, and the far - term contracts are at a slight premium. The price difference between near - and far - term egg futures is oscillating upwards and is at a historically low level. From the perspective of positions, the net short position of institutional positions in the main egg futures contract is decreasing [4] - Based on the culled chicken leading index, egg prices may continue to decline until March next year. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term and wait and see in the short - term [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Volume Analysis - Sub - items include the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices, egg basis for each futures contract, price difference between each egg futures contract, and the long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in the December and January egg futures contracts [6][9][13][18] Supply Analysis - Sub - items include egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culled chicken price, age and出栏量 of culled chickens, price and sales volume of commercial - generation egg chicks, and prices of large and small eggs and their seasonal price difference chart [21][24][26][28] Demand Analysis - Sub - items include sales volume in major sales areas, shipping volume in major production areas, inventory in production and circulation links, and seasonal charts of the price ratio between eggs and pork, and eggs and vegetables [30][33][35] Profit Analysis - Sub - items include the cost of raising a single catty of eggs, the average price of egg - laying hen feed, the egg - to - feed price ratio and expected profit, and the comprehensive breeding profit of egg - laying hens [38][40]