十五五规划：持续提高新能源供给，推进化石能源有序替代

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, increasing the proportion of renewable energy supply, and orderly replacing fossil energy. It aims to build a strong energy nation and implement dual control of carbon emissions [4]. - Green electricity trading volume reached 29 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.9%. The total electricity market trading volume in September 2025 was 573.2 billion kWh, up 9.8% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in undervalued thermal power, charging pile infrastructure, and the reassessment of photovoltaic and green electricity assets [4]. Industry Data Tracking Electricity Price - In November 2025, the average grid purchase price decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 1.8% month-on-month, averaging 401 RMB/MWh [38]. Coal Price - As of October 31, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 770 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 9.31% [42]. Hydropower - As of October 31, 2025, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 174.01 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 75.68% and 122.06% year-on-year, respectively [51]. Electricity Consumption - From January to July 2025, total electricity consumption reached 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [12]. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation from January to July 2025 was 5.47 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Thermal and hydropower generation saw declines of 1.3% and 4.5%, respectively [19]. Installed Capacity - As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.47 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [44]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued thermal power investments, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and consider companies like Jingtou Energy, Jingneng Power, and Datang Power [4]. - For charging pile equipment, companies such as Teruid and Shenghong Co. are recommended [4]. - The reassessment of photovoltaic and charging pile asset values is expected, with a focus on companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Group [4]. - Green electricity growth potential is highlighted, with recommendations for Longyuan Power H, Zhongmin Energy, and Sanxia Energy [4]. - Hydropower is noted for its low cost and strong cash flow, with a recommendation for Changjiang Power [4]. - Nuclear power is expected to grow, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4].