Ping An Securities·2025-11-03 11:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) [1][7] Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China continues to lead in profitability among major banks, with a stable decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratio [6][7] - The bank's operating income for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 550.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 220.9 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [3][6] - The bank's total asset size reached 48.1 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [3][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the bank's net interest income decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year [6] - Non-interest income showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.7% in Q3 2025, driven by a 13.3% rise in fee income and a 31.7% increase in other non-interest income [6][8] - The annualized return on equity (ROE) for Q3 2025 was 10.5% [3] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio at the end of Q3 2025 was 1.27%, showing a slight decrease from the previous half [7][8] - The provision coverage ratio remained stable at 295%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [7] Growth Projections - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.84, 0.89, and 0.93 yuan respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 4.1%, 5.6%, and 5.4% [6][10] - The bank's price-to-book (P/B) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.03x, 0.95x, and 0.88x respectively [6][10] Market Position - Agricultural Bank of China is recognized for its solid customer base and extensive branch network, focusing on rural finance and county-level banking as key strategic directions [7][8]