南华期货天然橡胶产业周报：宏观利好情绪消退，基本面担忧主导胶价-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the natural rubber market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. RU has low valuation and cost - side support but weak buying, while dark - colored rubbers like 20 - gauge rubber rely on downstream demand. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutrally bearish due to supply pressure and uncertain demand [1][2] - The market has shifted from macro - driven to fundamentals - driven pricing. The current fundamentals show mixed signals, with some positive factors in the upstream and downstream but also significant supply and demand pressures [1] - Trade policies and international situations pose risks to the long - term demand for rubber, and downstream tire enterprises may restructure the supply - demand distribution of rubber [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: After the initial rise, rubber prices retraced due to the fading of macro - positive sentiment. The fundamentals show that although RU has cost - side support, the buying is weak, and 20 - gauge rubber depends on downstream demand. The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, dragging down the price of the rubber system [1] - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand needs continuous macro - positive support, and the export growth faces risks such as international situations and trade barriers [1][2] - Proximal trading: The price difference between Indonesian standard rubber and other standard rubbers has widened slightly, providing some support to NR. The risk of near - month delivery is small, but there is still an anti - arbitrage space for some standard rubbers [7] - Distal trading: The weather in production areas has improved, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory in Qingdao has started to accumulate, increasing the supply pressure. The macro situation still has uncertainties, and the long - term demand may lead to a restructuring of the rubber supply - demand distribution [10] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price Range: The short - term reference oscillation range for RU2601 is 14800 - 15400; for NR2511, it is 12000 - 12400 [15] - Trend Judgement: It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the fundamentals as the main pricing factor. The support for RU01 is around 14600, and the pressure is around 15600; for NR12, the support is around 11800 [15] - Strategy Recommendations: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, consider small - scale long - position trading when RU01 stabilizes. For hedging, combine with protective options or consider a long - volatility strategy. For basis trading, consider reverse arbitrage for some varieties. For calendar spread arbitrage, hold long - spread positions for RU and consider long - spread positions for NR11 - 01. For variety arbitrage, consider widening the spread at low levels [16] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Forecast: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14800 - 15700, and for 20 - gauge rubber NR, it is 11900 - 12900 [22] - Risk Management Strategies: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short - sell rubber futures, buy out - of - the - money put options, and sell call options. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buy long - term rubber futures and out - of - the - money call options, and sell put options [22] 3.2 Important Information and Attention Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories decreased, the Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved results, the global automotive supporting demand was good, the Fed cut interest rates, the "15th Five - Year Plan" policies were introduced, and the demand for winter snow tires increased [24][25][26] - Negative Information: The Fed's decision on future interest rate cuts is uncertain, the increase in rubber prices has brought supply - demand pressure, the manufacturing PMI in China declined, the tire and automobile inventories are under pressure, and the weather may have a certain impact on production [27] 3.2.2 This Week's Attention Focus - Monitor the rainfall in production areas, changes in dry - rubber social inventory, downstream tire start - up conditions, and important macro data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and China's PPI and CPI reports [28] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: Last week, rubber prices first rebounded and then declined. RU and NR found support at around 15000 and 12000 respectively. The liquidity problem of 20 - gauge rubber has been alleviated, and the spot price is still stronger than the disk price. RU's position remained flat, while NR's position continued to decrease [29] - Capital Trend: Since last Thursday, the short positions of RU and NR have increased, and the net positions have decreased [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - Spot Price Changes: Last Friday, most spot prices fell, except for the increase in the price of whole milk latex. Among standard rubbers, the price of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [35] - Basis Structure: The spread between whole milk latex and smoked sheet rubber narrowed, the basis of whole milk latex remained flat, and the basis of smoked sheet rubber decreased. The basis of some standard rubbers rebounded, and the term structure of NR has changed from a deep back to a shallower one [37][42] - Calendar Spread Structure: The calendar spread structure of RU changed little, and the center of gravity moved up slightly. The price of NR decreased, and the back structure became shallower, reflecting weak market expectations [42] - External Market Conditions: The price of Thai smoked sheet rubber increased, driving the near - month contracts of Japanese RSS3 to strengthen, and the monthly spread structure became flatter. The price and structure of Singapore TSR20 rubber changed little [48] - Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index: Recently, the sentiment in the rubber market has fluctuated greatly. The bullish sentiment rose and then fell last week, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was weak. The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU continued to rise, while that of NR decreased [57] - Variety Spread Analysis: The spread between light - colored and dark - colored rubbers widened and then stabilized. The spread between natural and synthetic rubbers increased and then corrected, dragging down the price of natural rubber [60][64] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw Material Cost: Last week, rainfall in Hainan, Yunnan, and southern Thailand affected the supply, and raw material prices were firm. The price difference between water and cup in Thailand rebounded [66] - Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber: The delivery profit of whole milk latex and the profit of TSR9710 both decreased significantly [73] - Processing Profit - Imported Rubber: The overall center of rubber prices moved up last week. The import profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber remained flat, while the profits of 20 - gauge standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased [75] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Production in Major Producing Countries: The supply of natural rubber in major producing countries is expected to increase, and the weather in some areas has improved, which is conducive to production [10] - Import Situation: In September, the import of natural and synthetic rubber in China increased steadily. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while the import of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly [79] 3.5.2 Demand Side - Total Demand in Major Producing Countries: In August, the actual consumption of natural rubber in China remained stable year - on - year, while the demand in major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia declined [86] - Tire Production and Sales: The demand for winter snow tires has increased, and most tire enterprises' start - up rates have remained stable. The inventory of semi - steel tires has decreased, while that of all - steel tires has increased slightly. The export of domestic tires has shown strong resilience but has declined month - on - month [91] - Replacement Demand: The domestic logistics industry has been stable, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [96] - Supporting Demand: Domestic automobile sales have performed well, and the supporting demand for tires is expected to remain resilient. However, the long - term increase in the demand for truck - related tires may be limited [98][99] - Overseas Tire Production: Japan's tire production has remained stable overall, with strong performance in all - steel tires and a year - on - year decrease in semi - steel tires. Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [102] - Overseas Tire Demand: US tire imports have increased despite the decline in automobile sales. The production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable, and the production of commercial vehicles has decreased. The automobile production in Japan and South Korea has shown different trends [104] - Demand for Other Rubber Products: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has weakened, while that of rubber tubes is slightly higher than that of last year [111] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures Inventory: Affected by the weather, the RU warehouse receipts have continued to decline, while the NR warehouse receipts have increased due to stable imports and weak downstream procurement [116] - Social Inventory: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory [118]