Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-03 11:15Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting potential growth opportunities in renewable energy and natural gas consumption [4][8]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading prices in Q3 compared to Q1. The total issuance of green power certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable [7][8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price reaching a six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [9][11]. - The report anticipates an increase in natural gas consumption in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and expected higher heating demand from a potential La Niña phenomenon [30][31]. Summary by Sections Electricity - The average trading price of green certificates increased by 210% in Q3 compared to Q1. The issuance of green certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable, indicating a robust market growth [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for further development of the green certificate market and the introduction of regulations to enhance renewable energy consumption [4][7]. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the U.S. Henry Hub spot price was $3.57/mmBtu, marking an 11.16% increase week-on-week. In contrast, European gas prices showed a decline, with the TTF spot price at €30.35/MWh, down 5.42% [9][10]. - The report notes a decrease in China's apparent natural gas consumption in September 2025, but anticipates a rebound in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and increased heating demand [30][31]. - The LNG national ex-factory price in China rose to 4407 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.11% increase week-on-week, driven by rising demand ahead of the heating season [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market conditions: - Hydropower: Focus on Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power due to favorable hydrological conditions [8]. - Green Power: Attention to New Energy, Funiu Co., Longyuan Power, and China Resources Power for their stable returns [8]. - Nuclear Power: Recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power due to ongoing approvals for new units [8]. - Thermal Power: Companies like Guodian Power and Huadian International are highlighted for improved profitability due to falling coal prices [8]. - Gas Power: Recommendations for Guangzhou Development and Shenzhen Energy based on expected stability in profitability [8].