原油月报：宏观和地缘反复，国际油价先抑后扬-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the demand for crude oil may recover to some extent driven by heating stockpiling. The low inventory of crude oil and the decision of OPEC+ to suspend production increase in Q1 2026 support the oil price to stand firm at the WTI $60 support level. Without macro - shocks, the oil price has an upward - repair drive. In the medium term, due to the surplus contradiction within the year, the upside space is expected to be limited, and it may maintain a wide - range shock pattern within the year, with the price center likely to rise next year [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis 3.1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - In October, the oil market was mainly dominated by geopolitics and macro - factors, showing a V - shaped reversal of first falling and then rising. As of October 31, the average monthly settlement prices of WTI and Brent were $60.04/barrel (- 5.55%) and $63.95/barrel (- 5.36%) respectively; the average monthly settlement price of INE SC was 453.86 yuan/barrel (- 6.74%) [9]. 3.1.2 Financial Aspects - In October, the US government shutdown delayed the release of non - farm data, but the market's expectation of interest rate cuts remained strong, with a preventive interest rate cut of 25 basis points. As of October 31, the S&P 500 index reached 6840, hitting a new high since mid - April, and the VIX volatility was 17.44, significantly lower than when the tariff policy was first implemented and still at a low level this month [14]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index - As of October 31, the crude oil volatility ETF was 36.2, and the dollar index was 99.7308. In October, geopolitical and macro - factors repeatedly disturbed the crude oil market, causing the overall crude oil volatility to rise. Although the expected interest rate cut was implemented in October, the Fed emphasized it was a preventive cut and accompanied by the exit from QE, so the dollar index rose instead of falling under the narrative of the US stock market [18]. 3.1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - As of October 28, the net long positions of Brent managed funds decreased by 28,600 contracts to 173,900 contracts month - on - month, a monthly decline of 14.1%; the net long positions of ICE diesel decreased by 38,100 contracts to 79,300 contracts, a monthly decline of 32.5%. In October, it was a seasonal off - season, and the net long positions decreased significantly under the weak fundamental situation [22]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 3.2.1 OPEC Overall Production - In September, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day compared with the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the pace. The eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production had their production still below the plan in August, but the production increase speed has accelerated [28]. 3.2.2 OPEC+ Production Cut Situation - According to the IEA statistical caliber, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in September was 23.87 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels per day. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still over - produced significantly, but the overall over - production amplitude of the 9 countries decreased compared with the previous month. The core 7 countries updated the compensation production cut plan, and the concentrated production cut volume was postponed to the first half of next year [32]. 3.2.3 Saudi and Iranian Crude Oil Production - In September, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 248,000 barrels per day to 9.961 million barrels per day; Iran's crude oil production increased by 45,000 barrels per day to 3.258 million barrels per day. Iran was sanctioned again, and the 12 - day Israel - Iran war in June also affected its subsequent oil production [35]. 3.2.4 Main Oil - Producing Countries' Production Changes - The production of major oil - producing countries such as Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait showed different trends. The data shows the production changes of these countries over time [39]. 3.2.5 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to the OPEC statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in September was 9.321 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 148,000 barrels per day; according to the IEA statistical caliber, it was 9.21 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 barrels per day. With the continuous expansion of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US, although Russia's production is expected to gradually recover under the production increase plan, it may still be at a low level [43]. 3.2.6 US Crude Oil Rig Count - As of the week of October 31, the number of online drilling oil wells in the US was 414, a decrease of 8 compared with the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 65. The improvement of drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditures [47]. 3.2.7 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of October 24, US crude oil production rebounded to 13.644 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.07%. The high oil prices since June seem to have boosted the enthusiasm of oil producers [50]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.3.1 US Total Petroleum Product Demand - As of the week of October 24, the total daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 144,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 0.91%. In October, the demand for oil products bottomed out and rebounded after a seasonal weakening, and it is expected to peak again in November [54]. 3.3.2 US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data - In October, US crude oil production increased by 1.03% month - on - month, consumption increased by 2.01%, refinery processing volume decreased by 5.87%, and refinery operating rate decreased by 5.25%. The import volume of crude oil decreased by 13.41%, and the export volume increased by 16.26% [58]. 3.3.3 US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Four - Week Average Consumption - As of the four weeks of October 24, the average demand for gasoline in the US decreased by 114,000 barrels per day to 8.688 million barrels per day compared with the previous month, a year - on - year decrease of 4.19%; the average demand for distillates increased by 172,000 barrels per day to 4.002 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%; the average consumption of kerosene increased by 124,000 barrels per day to 1.764 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 7.63% [59]. 3.3.4 US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of October 31, the gasoline crack spread was $19.64/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $41.13/barrel. In October, the crack spreads of these two products rebounded, which was in line with the seasonality of each oil product [63]. 3.3.5 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of October 31, the ICE diesel crack spread was $32.95/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.67/barrel. In the third quarter, European diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventory and peak - season replenishment demand. Driven by diesel, the overall oil products were in a warm atmosphere, and the crack spreads continued to rise [67]. 3.3.6 China's Oil Products and Refinery Situation - In September, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.963 million tons year - on - year to 62.69 million tons (+ 6.75%); the import volume increased by 1.76 million tons year - on - year to 47.25 million tons (+ 3.87%). Currently, China's demand has entered an off - season, and the processing volume, import volume, and refinery operating rate have all declined [71]. 3.3.7 Institutions' Forecasts of Demand Growth - In October, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted that the global crude oil demand growth rate this year would be 1.1 million barrels per day (↑), 700,000 barrels per day (↓), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively; next year, the growth rates would be 1.1 million barrels per day, 700,000 barrels per day, and 1.4 million barrels per day respectively [74]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 3.4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - In October, US commercial crude oil first accumulated and then decreased. As of October 24, EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels compared with the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 2.24%; SPR inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.334 million barrels to 22.565 million barrels [75]. 3.4.2 Inventory Changes - As of the week of October 24, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 1.025 million barrels per day to 690,000 barrels per day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 1.078 million barrels per day to 15.219 million barrels per day compared with the end of the previous month, and the refinery operating rate dropped to a minimum of 85.7% in October and decreased by 2% to 86.6% last week [79]. 3.4.3 WTI Monthly Spread - The WTI monthly spread generally maintained a back structure. As of October 31, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.38/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.99/barrel. The monthly spread index bottomed out and rebounded. In the first half of October, the demand for refined oil products in the US bottomed out, and the spread continued to decline. In the second half of the month, the spread widened slightly under the background of rising geopolitical tensions and increasing heating demand [82]. 3.4.4 Brent Monthly Spread - The Brent monthly spread still maintained a back structure. As of October 31, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.3/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.37/barrel. The Brent monthly spread, like the WTI monthly spread, still showed a positive - carry pattern but was relatively stronger due to the expected tighter supply in the European region caused by sanctions on Russia [85]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Differences 3.5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the EIA's October monthly report forecast, in 2025, the global oil supply is 105.85 million barrels per day, and the demand is 103.99 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.88 million barrels, which continues to increase compared with the previous month. This year, the supply side is affected by the gradual production increase of OPEC+, and the demand side is restricted by the US tariff policy, showing a clear surplus pattern [88]. 3.5.2 Term Structure - The US fundamental data shows that the off - season has arrived, and the term structure continues to flatten. Due to geopolitical factors, the supply of Brent still has a tight expectation, and the positive - carry structure can be supported on the basis of good crack profits. Currently, international oil products can maintain the positive - carry term structure. Although the demand off - season is coming, OPEC's willingness to continue increasing production has decreased, and it is expected that the positive - carry pattern of Brent may weaken but still be maintained [91].