Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a volatile and differentiated state due to the end of the tariff issue and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation by Powell's hawkish remarks. Different assets show distinct performances [5][6][9]. - Gold prices have fallen from their highs recently but still have long - term upward support. Investors are advised to approach gold investment rationally [6]. - The gold tax new policy aims to regulate the market, guide resources, and serve the real economy by adjusting the behavior and motivation of market participants [73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Analysis - Global major stock markets are mixed, with the Nikkei leading the rise, the US stocks rising, and the A - shares under pressure. The BDI index has a small decline, the VIX index rises significantly, the US bond yield and the US dollar index increase together, and most non - US currencies weaken. Commodities mostly fall, with precious metals falling from highs, and copper and oil prices weak [5][9]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rises across the board with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones, the stock index is mixed, and most commodity sectors fall. The Wind commodity index has a weekly decline of 1.96%, with 3 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 7 falling. Coal, coking, steel, and minerals perform well, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals drag down the overall decline of commodities. Energy, grains, and non - metallic building materials sectors are almost flat, and the agricultural and sideline products and chemical sectors have relatively large declines [5][14]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in October as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation. The 10 - month domestic PMI data was lower than expected, which put pressure on the A - shares and commodities [6]. - Gold prices have fallen from historical highs to around $4000 per ounce. It is due to short - term technical adjustments and the weakening of risk - aversion sentiment, as well as the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rebound of the US dollar index. However, there is still long - term upward support for gold prices [6]. Big - Class Assets - Stock markets: Global major stock markets are mixed, with the Nikkei leading the rise, the US stocks rising, and the A - shares under pressure [5][9]. - Commodities: Commodities mostly fall, with precious metals falling from highs, and copper and oil prices weak [5][9]. - Others: The BDI index has a small decline, the VIX index rises significantly, the US bond yield and the US dollar index increase together, and most non - US currencies weaken [5][9]. Plate Express - Domestic bond market rises across the board with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones, the stock index is mixed, and most commodity sectors fall. The Wind commodity index has a weekly decline of 1.96%, with 3 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 7 falling [14]. - Coal, coking, steel, and minerals perform well, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals drag down the overall decline of commodities. Energy, grains, and non - metallic building materials sectors are almost flat, and the agricultural and sideline products and chemical sectors have relatively large declines [14]. Capital Flow - The overall capital in the commodity futures market slightly flows out last week. The agricultural and sideline products, non - ferrous metals, and non - metallic building materials sectors have obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals, energy, and oil and fat sectors have obvious capital outflows [16]. Variety Performance - Among domestic major commodity futures, the top - rising varieties are apples, iron ore, and coking coal, while the top - falling varieties are butadiene rubber, methanol, and palm [20]. Fluctuation Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index slightly decreases, the volatility of the domestic Wind commodity index significantly increases, and the South China commodity index significantly reduces volatility. Most commodity futures sectors see a decline in volatility, with the non - metallic building materials, chemical, and coal, coking, steel, and minerals sectors significantly reducing volatility, and the precious metals sector having the most obvious upward volatility [24]. Data Tracking - International commodities: Most international commodities rise, with the BDI falling, the CRB rising slightly, soybeans and corn rising, copper rising, oil falling, gold falling, and silver rising, and the gold - silver ratio falling [26]. - Domestic data: The asphalt production rate seasonally declines, the real - estate sales are at a weak bottom, the freight rates show a differentiated rebound, and the short - term capital interest rate fluctuates at a low level [40]. Macro Logic - Stock index: The domestic four major stock indexes fall from highs and are mixed. The value stocks are weaker, and the growth - style stock indexes are stronger. The stock - index valuation is under pressure, and the risk premium ERP rebounds from a low level [30]. - Commodity price index: The commodity price index fluctuates at a high level, and the inflation expectation rebounds from a low level [32]. - US bond: The US bond yield significantly increases, with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones. The term structure shows a bearish steepening, the term spread is stable, the real interest rate rebounds, and the gold price fluctuates and rebounds [47]. - "Fund Seesaw" Effect and Commodity Spread: Last week, the stock market rises first and then falls, the commodity market fluctuates, and the commodity - stock return difference rebounds from a bottom. The domestic - priced commodities are relatively resistant to decline, and the international - priced commodities are weaker, with the domestic - international commodity futures return difference hovering around the zero axis [39]. - US economic indicators: The US high - frequency "recession indicators" are differentiated, the weekly economic index weakens, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread hovers around the zero axis [58]. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% in October as expected. But due to the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the expectation probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut to 3.5 - 3.75% in December drops to 59.3% from last week's 98.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increases significantly [62]. World Gold Association Report - In the third quarter of 2025, the global gold demand reaches a record high of 1,313 tons, with a total demand value of $146 billion. The growth is mainly driven by investment demand, which surges to 537 tons, a 47% year - on - year increase, accounting for 55% of the total net demand in the third quarter [66]. - The demand for gold bars and coins increases by 17% year - on - year to 316 tons, with India and China making prominent contributions. The global gold jewelry demand is under pressure, with a 19% year - on - year decline. The global central banks accelerate gold purchases, with a net purchase of 220 tons in the third quarter, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year [67]. - In China, the retail gold investment and consumption demand in the third quarter is 152 tons, a 7% year - on - year decline and a 38% quarter - on - quarter decline. By value, it reaches 120.4 billion yuan, a 29% year - on - year increase. The sales of gold bars and coins increase by 19% year - on - year to 74 tons, a 36% quarter - on - quarter decline. The gold ETF in the Chinese market has an outflow of 3.8 billion yuan, and the total position decreases by 5.8 tons to 194 tons. The gold jewelry demand is 84 tons, a 21% quarter - on - quarter increase but an 18% year - on - year decline. By value, the gold jewelry consumption in the third quarter is 66.5 billion yuan, with significant increases both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year [68]. Gold Tax New Policy - On November 1st, the Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration jointly issued the "Announcement on Tax Policies Related to Gold" (No. 11 in 2025). The policy aims to regulate the market, guide resources, and serve the real economy through precise tax policy adjustments [73]. - The policy suppresses speculation by implementing differentiated VAT management according to the use of gold after delivery. It encourages rational investment by increasing the tax cost of enterprise - client investment in gold. - It supports the real economy by allowing non - investment uses of gold (such as in jewelry production and industrial use) to have a complete and smooth VAT deduction chain. - It regulates the market by binding tax incentives to the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and preventing tax loopholes by strictly controlling the use declaration and change mechanism [74]. Fed Meeting - On October 30th, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% as expected and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction (QT) on December 1st. There are internal differences within the Fed, with some advocating a larger - scale interest - rate cut and others opposing further cuts. The policy statement is adjusted to weaken concerns about employment decline and inflation. Powell emphasizes the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut decision and the impact of the government shutdown on data [84]. - After Powell's hawkish remarks, the probability of a December interest - rate cut drops from 95% to 65%. The US stocks, US bonds, gold, and digital currencies fall sharply during the session, the US dollar rises, and finally, the Nasdaq rises, the Dow and the S&P 500 fall, the US bond yield rises significantly, and the gold price falls by 2.5% from the high point [88]. China - US Summit in Busan - On October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents held a meeting in Busan. The two sides reached consensus on several aspects in the economic and trade consultations, including the US canceling the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year, and the two sides extending some tariff exclusion measures. The US will also suspend the implementation of some export - control rules, 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and ship - building industries for one year, and the two sides will also cooperate on fentanyl anti - drug, expand agricultural product trade, and handle relevant enterprise cases [93][95]. October PMI Data - In October, the manufacturing PMI is 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index is 50.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, entering the expansion range. The comprehensive PMI output index is 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises are stable [98]. - By enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises is 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all lower than the critical point and showing a decline from the previous month [98]. - Among the 5 sub - indexes of the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index is at the critical point, while the production index, new order index, raw - material inventory index, and employment index are all below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production, a decline in market demand, a decrease in raw - material inventory, and a slight decline in employment [99]. This Week's Focus - Monday (November 3rd): Eurozone October manufacturing PMI final value, US October S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value, US October ISM manufacturing PMI. - Tuesday (November 4th): San Francisco Fed President Daly gives a speech, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest - rate decision, European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech, US September JOLTs job openings. - Wednesday (November 5th): Eurozone October services PMI final value, the Swedish central bank announces the interest - rate decision, Eurozone September PPI monthly rate, US October ADP employment, US October S&P Global services PMI final value, US October ISM non - manufacturing PMI. - Thursday (November 6th): Eurozone September retail sales monthly rate, the Bank of England announces the interest - rate decision, Tesla holds its annual general meeting. - Friday (November 7th): New York Fed President Williams gives a speech, Cleveland Fed President Harmaek gives a speech at the New York Economic Club, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson gives a speech, St. Louis Fed President Musalem has a fireside chat on monetary policy, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech at the European Central Bank money - market meeting, US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value. - Saturday (November 8th): US October New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation.
宏观与大宗商品周报-20251103
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-03 11:33