冠通期货聚烯烃周报-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that polyolefins will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Although the previous cost increase and macro - economic improvement have driven the rebound of polyolefins, their own upward momentum is insufficient. Currently, the peak - season demand is below expectations, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. Additionally, the anti - involution policies for the polyolefin industry have not been implemented yet [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Trend - Plastic and PP prices first rose and then declined [4]. b. Production Rate - Plastic production rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points to around 85%, at a neutral level. New maintenance devices such as those in Zhongyuan Petrochemical's full - density production were added [15]. - PP production rate remained at around 80%, at a neutral - low level. New maintenance devices like those in CNOOC Daxie's new first - line were added, while some devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's second - line restarted [15]. c. Downstream Production Rate - As of the week ending October 31, PE downstream production rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film sector is in the peak season with increasing orders and raw material inventory, reaching a neutral level in recent years, packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall PE downstream production rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [21]. - As of the week ending October 31, PP downstream production rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic - weaving production rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, and plastic - weaving orders decreased slightly compared with the previous week and were slightly lower than the same period last year [21]. d. Basis - Spot prices were stable, while futures prices declined. The basis of the 01 contract rose to 201 yuan/ton, at a neutral - low level [24]. e. Inventory - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons week - on - week to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [28]. f. Cost and New Capacity - Recently, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries did not change fundamentally. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [3]. - New production capacity includes the trial operation of ExxonMobil (Huizhou)'s 500,000 - ton/year LDPE and the recent commissioning of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton/year PE and 400,000 - ton/year PP [3].