尿素周报：高价抵触，盘面小幅回调-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the current demand side is weak, there are still expectations for the future market. Factors such as off - season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage will affect urea prices. Currently, the futures price is in a correction phase, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level and difficult to return to the previous low [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the urea spot market, during the end - stage of autumn fertilizers, downstream buyers mainly replenish inventory at low prices, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low acceptance of high prices. Since the weekend, urea quotes have been on a downward trend [1][3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed a decline. As of November 3, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,623 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on October 27. The weekly trading volume was 1,223.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255.05 million tons; the open interest was 685.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.40 million tons. The futures price decline was less than that of the spot price, and the basis strengthened. As of November 3, the 01 - contract basis was - 63 yuan/ton, a weekly change of - 13 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly change of - 5 yuan/ton [5] Urea Supply Side - Last week, urea weekly output increased. From October 23 to 29, the weekly output was 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,400 tons, or 2.93%. The average daily output was 187,900 tons. Coal - based weekly output was 1.0371 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.71%; gas - based weekly output was 278,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.75%. The next cycle is expected to see an increase in output. On November 3, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 198,200 tons, an increase of 7,800 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.75%. In the raw material market, coal price increase slowed down last week, but it is expected to rise due to upcoming heating season demand. LNG prices rose by 7.67% week - on - week, synthetic ammonia price center shifted up, and the spread between synthetic ammonia and urea weakened by 26 yuan/ton week - on - week. Methanol price was stable, and the spread between methanol and urea weakened by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [10][12][13] Urea Demand Side - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat. As of October 31, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was quoted at 2,900 yuan/ton. The compound fertilizer market is in the co - existence stage of autumn fertilizer end and winter storage, with slow overall fertilizer preparation rhythm. The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories increased. From October 25 to 31, the compound fertilizer operating rate was 31.04%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from the previous period. As of October 31, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66%, and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous week [15][16][18] International Market - International urea prices rose last week. European demand was strong, and the final tender volume of the Indian tender was 431,000 tons, lower than the procurement target, which may lead to a new round of Indian tenders. In September 2025, China's urea export volume was about 1.37 million tons, and from January to September 2025, the total export volume was about 2.81 million tons. As of October 31, small - particle Chinese FOB price was $377.5/ton, up $2.5/ton week - on - week; large - particle Chinese FOB price remained flat at $392.5/ton [21][22][23]