供应增量释放遇阻需求韧性，矿价区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, iron ore prices fluctuated strongly, with mainstream spot prices rising between 2 - 25 yuan. The Platts 62% index closed at $107.4 on October 31, up $3.5 month - on - month. The optimal deliverable was NM powder, with a warehouse - receipt price of about 827 yuan/ton [6]. - China's 47 - port iron ore inventory increased compared to the previous period but was lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at the 47 ports may increase in the next period [6]. - In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased, and the loss range of steel mills continued to expand. It is expected that the pig iron output will fluctuate slightly at a high level in the next period [7][8]. - From a fundamental perspective, in October, the iron ore shipments remained at a seasonal high, and the supply pattern became looser. The pig iron output fluctuated at a high level and declined at the end of the month due to environmental protection restrictions in Hebei. In November, there is a possibility of a decline in pig iron output, and the supply - demand situation will weaken marginally. In terms of valuation, the recent spot and futures steel profits have continued to shrink. In November, attention should be paid to changes in pig iron output, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of $95 (756) - $105 (836) [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - Price: In October, iron ore prices fluctuated strongly, and different varieties had different price changes. The Platts 62% index rose month - on - month, and the optimal deliverable was NM powder [6]. - Inventory: The 47 - port iron ore inventory increased compared to the previous period but was lower than the same period last year. It is expected to increase in the next period [6]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with Australia and Brazil shipments down. The arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [7]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased. Some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance, mainly due to environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and low profits in other regions. The loss range of steel mills expanded, and the pig iron output is expected to fluctuate slightly at a high level [8]. - Conclusion: The supply - demand situation will weaken marginally in November. Attention should be paid to changes in pig iron output, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of $95 (756) - $105 (836) [9]. 3.2 Data Combing - Iron Ore Warehouse - Receipt Price: The report lists the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and warehouse - receipt prices of various iron ore varieties. The optimal deliverable is NM powder, and the sub - optimal is PB powder [14]. - Iron Ore Inter - Period Spread: As of October 31, the iron ore 1 - 5 spread closed at 23.5 (+3) [17]. - Iron Ore Import Profit: No specific data analysis provided. - High - Low Grade Price Difference: No specific data analysis provided. - Premium Index: As of October 30, the 62.5% lump ore premium index was 0.123 (- 0.0055), and the 65% pellet premium index was 17.75 (-) [27]. - Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory: The report shows the inventory and premium (discount) trends of different iron ore brands such as Mac, PB, and JMB [29]. - Steel Mill Sintered Ore Inventory: The inventory of imported and domestic sintered ore of 64 sample steel mills decreased, while the average inventory days of imported ore increased [32]. - Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory and Consumption: The inventory, daily consumption, and inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore of 247 steel mills decreased [34]. - Port Inventory and Berthing: The report presents the trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, and inventories of different ore sources (Australia, Brazil, etc.) [37]. - Port Inventory by Ore Type: The inventory of imported port lump ore decreased, while that of pellet ore, iron concentrate, and coarse powder increased [40]. - Surcharge Volume: The report shows the surcharge volume data from 2020 - 2025 [42]. - Iron Ore Import Quantity: The report presents the import volume data of the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [44]. - Australia Iron Ore Shipment Volume: Australia's shipments to China and total shipments decreased, while the proportion of shipments to China increased [54]. - Brazil Iron Ore Shipment Volume: Brazil's shipments to the world increased slightly [59]. - Four Major Mines Iron Ore Shipment Volume: The total shipment volume of the four major mines decreased, with different changes for each mine [60]. - Iron Ore Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports and northern ports increased significantly [67]. - Freight Rate: The report shows the freight rate trends from Brazil Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [69]. - Domestic Ore Output (Estimated): The output and inventory of domestic iron concentrate increased slightly [72]. - Steel Mill Ore Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased, as well as the daily consumption of imported and domestic sintered ore [73]. - Pig Iron Output: The daily average pig iron output data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, and the output of some regions has different growth and decline trends [79]. - Global Pig Iron Output: The report shows the pig iron output trends of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, and the world [82]. - Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Output: The pig iron output of regions outside China decreased compared to the previous year, with different month - on - month and year - on - year changes [86].