Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the trends of oilseeds and oils diverged. CBOT soybeans broke through upward, while oils broke through downward. The overall trend of oils was weak due to the resonance of the industry and external factors, and the rapeseed-palm oil spread broke through. The market sentiment was boosted by the strong demand for soybean crushing in the US and China's resumption of purchasing US soybeans, causing CBOT soybeans to break through the previous 15 - and - a - half - month oscillation range and stand above the 1100 mark. However, the continued shutdown of the US government and the possible delay in the announcement of the biodiesel bill suppressed CBOT soybean oil to break through the key support of 50. The supply - demand data of Malaysian palm oil was slightly bearish, and the situation of Indonesian palm oil supply - demand was expected to ease. The BMD crude palm oil was under pressure and broke through [7]. - Considering the bearish Southeast Asian supply - demand data and B50 news, and the expected lack of positive progress in China - Canada trade negotiations, along with China's resumption of importing US soybeans boosting the US market sentiment, the divergence in the origin markets intensified and was transmitted to the domestic market. Rapeseed and palm oils broke through downward. In the short term, the overall trend of oils will continue to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for now and await the October origin monthly reports [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review - In October, CBOT soybeans found support at the 1000 mark again and then broke through upward, standing above the 1100 mark. Both domestic and international palm oils and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil broke through downward, while domestic and international soybean oils oscillated weakly [10]. b. Fundamental Analysis - US Soybeans: China resumed purchasing US soybeans. In September, the US soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, the fourth - highest on record. In August, the consumption of soybean oil in the biodiesel sector was 1.041 billion pounds. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans exceeded 30%, and the premium at the end of October dropped from a high level [13]. - Palm Oil: In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5 - 6%, and exports increased by 4 - 5%. The reference price of crude palm oil in November was 4262.23 Malaysian ringgit per ton. It is expected that the production of Indonesian palm oil will increase by 10% in 2025, and the production in the first 8 months increased by 13%. The reference price of crude palm oil in November was 963.75 US dollars per ton. In September, India imported 829,000 tons of palm oil and 503,000 tons of soybean oil [13]. - Import and Crushing: In September, China imported 1.2869 billion tons of soybeans, with a cumulative import of 8.618 billion tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The import of palm oil in September was 150,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 1.74 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The import of soybean oil in September was 70,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 270,000 tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The import of rapeseed oil in September was 160,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 1.6 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%. Due to the long holiday in October, the soybean crushing volume decreased month - on - month, and the soybean inventory in oil mills continued to accumulate. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was almost exhausted, the crushing operation rate declined, and the weekly crushing volume remained below 20,000 tons [13]. - Inventory: In October, the soybean oil inventory was stable at around 1.25 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline for 6 months to around 560,000 tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the high point at the beginning of May; the palm oil inventory rose above 600,000 tons again after a brief decline. The total inventory of the three major oils was 2.36 million tons, compared with 1.97 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - Spot Prices: In October, the spot prices of oils first rose and then fell. Rapeseed and palm oils dropped significantly compared with before the holiday. As of October 31, the price of soybean oil was 8383 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 0.42% from the previous month; the price of palm oil was 8780 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.94% from the previous month; the price of rapeseed oil was 9868 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous month [13]. - Demand: The overall spot trading volume of oils in October was average. The trading volume of soybean oil in October was 251,500 tons, compared with 338,600 tons in the previous month; the trading volume of palm oil was 23,715 tons, compared with 34,592 tons in the previous month; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, compared with 20,000 tons in the previous month [13]. c. Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the given text for detailed summary.
产业与外围共振，菜棕破位，油脂整体走势较弱
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-03 11:36