鸡蛋月报：现货以稳为主，大小码价差走强-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the egg industry is neutral, with supply, demand, profit, price - volume, and strategy all rated as neutral [4] Report's Core View - This month, the price of culled hens in sample breeding enterprises dropped significantly, the decline in the age of culled hens slowed down, the price of chicks decreased slightly, and the price difference between large and small eggs first decreased and then increased [4] - Due to weather factors, storage is convenient, the breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices, while the trading side has sufficient inventory, and both buyers and sellers are highly watchful, causing egg prices to fluctuate [4] - Seasonal patterns suggest that in winter, falling prices are supported by stockpiling, and rising prices are constrained by supply, so egg prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [4] - Recently, the price difference between large and small eggs has widened, possibly due to the breeding side accelerating the elimination of old laying hens, reducing the production capacity of large eggs, and an increase in newly - opened laying hens, mostly imported chicken breeds [4] - This month, the sales volume in major sales areas and the shipment volume in major production areas first rose and then fell, and the inventories in the circulation and production links fluctuated slightly, higher than the average of the past four years [4] - Downstream demand is stable, traders mostly purchase as they sell, inventory changes little, and they generally follow the market, with low enthusiasm for active inventory building, replenishment [4] - This month, the breeding profit fluctuated slightly and is currently near the break - even line, with the profit level at the lowest in the same period of the past four years [4] - This month, the egg basis decreased slightly, the near - month futures contracts are at par, and the far - month contracts are at a slight premium [4] - Currently, the price difference between near - and far - term egg futures is rising in a volatile manner and is at a historically low level [4] - From the perspective of positions, the net short position of institutional positions in the main egg futures contract is decreasing [4] - Based on the culled hen leading index, egg prices may continue to decline until March next year. It is recommended to sell short on rallies for the medium - to - long - term and wait and see in the short - term [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Volume Analysis - Analyzes the main production area price vs. main sales area price, egg basis of each futures contract, price difference between each futures contract, and the net institutional positions in futures [5][8][12][16] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as laying hen inventory, culled hen situation, replenishment situation, and the situation of large and small eggs [21][25][27][29] Demand Analysis - Includes the shipment volume and sales volume, inventory, and substitutes [31][34][36] Profit Analysis - Focuses on the breeding cost and breeding profit [39][41]