冠通期货研究报告：沪铜周报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in copper prices this week was mainly affected by Powell's hawkish speech at the Fed's interest - rate meeting, which strengthened the US dollar and suppressed the rise of non - ferrous metals. Also, the decline in China's manufacturing PMI data and weak domestic industrial demand expectations contributed to the drop. However, fundamentally, the long - term upward trend of copper prices is hard to change. The shortage of copper concentrates and production cuts at smelters will lead to a decline in copper output. With global copper inventories at a low level, there is still an expected supply gap even if demand increases significantly. Currently, the decline in copper prices should be seen as a correction, and in the medium - to - long - term, copper prices will remain strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Situation - In October, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the prosperity level. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3][5]. - On October 30, 2025, the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan brought positive signals to the market. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and both sides will adjust relevant tariff and export control measures [7]. - On October 30, 2025, the Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, lowering the interest rate to the 3.75% - 4.00% range [7]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The weekly high was 89,270 yuan/ton, the low was 86,530 yuan/ton, the weekly volatility was 3.12%, and the range decline was 0.81% [9]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of October 31, the average spot premium in East China was 0 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was also 0 yuan/ton. Due to the low willingness of downstream buyers to purchase at high prices, the premium of holders was under pressure, and the spot premium remained at a low level [14]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure - As of October 31, LME copper rose 0.68% this week, closing at $10,915/ton. Although there was a slight decline recently, the overall upward trend continued. Recently, it was under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar [19]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - Customs data on October 31 showed that the port inventory of copper concentrates was 461,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.11%. In September 2025, China imported 25.87 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.23%. This week, the inventory of copper concentrates rebounded but was still significantly lower than the same period last year. The copper mine resources were tight, and the accident at the Indonesian copper mine was expected to affect global copper supply until next year [24]. - There have been frequent disruptions at copper mines this year. For example, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia had a mudslide in September, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine had an earthquake in May, and the El Teniente mine suspended underground operations in July [24]. - On October 28, Indonesia announced that it would issue a copper concentrate export license to Amman Mining International, which may ease the tight supply of copper concentrates to some extent [24]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - From January to September 2025, China imported 1.4496 million metal tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. Affected by Document No. 770, the procurement of anode copper was still affected. With the recent rise in copper prices, the supply of scrap copper is expected to increase to make up for the shortage of copper concentrates [29]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of October 31, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $42.06/ton dry, and the refining fee (RC) was - 4.13 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The long - term contract price was still under negotiation, and the market expected it to be zero or negative due to the tight supply of copper concentrates [33]. - In October, 8 smelters carried out maintenance, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.4 million tons, and the impact on production increased by 47,300 tons compared with September. In November, 5 smelters are expected to carry out maintenance, and copper production is showing a downward trend [33][37]. - The rise in gold, silver, and sulfuric acid prices and the long - term contract price can make up for some losses of smelters, but the continuous negative smelting processing fees still have a negative impact on smelters [33]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In October, SMM's statistics showed that China's electrolytic copper output decreased by 29,400 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 2.62% month - on - month and an increase of 9.63% year - on - year. In November, 5 smelters are expected to carry out maintenance, and copper production will decline [37]. - In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and exported 26,400 tons of unwrought refined copper cathodes and cathode profiles, a year - on - year increase of 81.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 28.15% [37]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.4665 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%. The recent rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand to some extent, and the downstream operating rate has declined slightly. However, in the long term, the demand for copper is still strong, driven by investment in power grid projects, the development of AI computing power, and the stabilization of the real estate market [42]. 3.10 Copper Products - According to the research of Steel Union, more than half of the sampled refined copper rod enterprises have reduced or stopped production, and several enterprises have plans to do so in the future. It is expected that only 25% of the sampled enterprises will maintain normal production in the long term, mainly due to the sharp increase in copper prices and the lack of enthusiasm of downstream buyers [47]. - Copper tube enterprises mainly sell through long - term contracts, so their production and operation are relatively stable. The market is in the off - season, and enterprises adjust their operating rates according to actual orders. The supply of copper foil is still tight due to the strong demand in the downstream new energy and consumer electronics markets, and the operating load remains high [47]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of September, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%, and the installed capacity of wind power was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. From January to September, the average utilization hours of the country's power generation equipment were 2,368 hours, a decrease of 251 hours compared with the same period last year [51]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, and the sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. Among them, the sales area and volume of residential housing decreased by 5.6% and 7.6% respectively [57]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In September 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From October 1 - 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the penetration rate was 56.1% [61]. - In the 2025 "trade - in" program for cars, new energy vehicles accounted for 57.2%, driving a 24.4% year - on - year increase in the retail sales of new energy passenger cars from January to September, with a market penetration rate of 52.1% [61]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - LME copper inventories continued to decline. As of October 31, LME copper inventories decreased by 1,725 tons to 134,600 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating the pressure on global copper supply. Small changes in copper supply can easily cause large fluctuations in market prices [66]. - As of October 31, COMEX copper inventories were 355,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.21%. Since the 232 copper tariff investigation, COMEX copper inventories have increased to 300% higher than the same period last year. Although COMEX copper inventories are at a high level, the global total inventory is still low, and the large amount of copper in COMEX cannot adjust the global copper supply imbalance [66]. - As of October 30, the total copper inventories in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong were 114,700 tons, showing a decline. Although there were still some export goods arriving at individual markets, some warehouse goods were shipped overseas for warehousing, resulting in an overall decline in inventory [72]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to increase. High - priced copper suppressed downstream procurement demand, reducing the circulation of copper and leading to inventory accumulation. As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.23%. Although the copper concentrate resources in the market were scarce, the mid - end smelting capacity was still operating normally [72].