沪胶，重返弱势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The natural rubber market is in a pattern of "high supply pressure and insufficient demand support", with a bearish fundamental outlook. Rubber prices will continue to oscillate weakly under the repeated game between macro - sentiment fluctuations and industrial realities [4]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Supply - Side Situation - The production of natural rubber is increasing. Currently in the peak rubber - tapping season, the weather in domestic production areas such as Hainan and Yunnan is stable, and the impact of Typhoon "Meykhla" in early October was limited. The production of rubber forests quickly recovered, and new rubber output increased steadily. In Southeast Asia, countries like Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam are also in the full - scale rubber - tapping cycle, with stable output growth. From January to August, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries reached 6.8536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons or 0.96%. Thailand's production increased by 3.00% year - on - year, and exports increased by 7.85% year - on - year [2]. - The inventory pressure is high. From January to September, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 6.115 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. The cumulative imports of natural rubber were 4.7172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. In October, with the large - scale listing of new rubber and the concentrated arrival of imports, the inventory de - stocking rhythm in Qingdao Port slowed down, and there were signs of re - accumulation. The inventory level of the entire supply chain exerts strong pressure on rubber prices [3]. Demand - Side Situation - The demand in the tire industry is weak. The demand in the domestic tire industry is structurally differentiated and overall sluggish. Due to the seasonal weakening of terminal demand and some enterprises' active adjustment of production rhythms to cope with inventory pressure, the operating load of the tire industry has declined. The growth rate of tire exports has also slowed down, and the export market faces certain resistance. As of the week ending October 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points but a year - on - year decrease of 5.90 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.20 percentage points. The demand for full - steel tires will remain weak due to insufficient construction starts in real estate and infrastructure projects, which in turn suppresses the demand for whole latex [4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend. Last Friday, it fell 2.65% to 15,085 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 1.63% last week [2].