固收、宏观周报：A股或维持高位震荡，债市与黄金短期波动-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A shares are likely to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the bond market and gold will experience short - term volatility. The report suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in directions such as computing power, chips, artificial intelligence, batteries, rare earths, and innovative drugs [13]. - The high risk preference is unfavorable to the bond market, but the high absolute yield makes it have long - term allocation value. The gold price may fluctuate in the short term, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [14]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Stock Market - US Stocks and Hong Kong Stocks: In the past week (20251027 - 20251102), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.24%, 0.71%, and 0.75% respectively, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index fell by 1.00%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.97% [3]. - A Shares: The wind all - A index rose by 0.41%. Among them, the CSI A100 and CSI 300 fell by 0.51% and 0.43% respectively, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks rose by 1.00%, 1.18%, 0.95%, and 0.34% respectively. In terms of sectors, the Shanghai blue - chip and growth sectors fell, the Shenzhen blue - chip sector fell while the growth sector rose, and the North Securities 50 index rose by 7.52%. Among the 30 CITIC industries, 21 industries rose, with the leading industries being basic chemicals, electric power and new energy, and comprehensive finance, with a weekly increase of more than 3.0%. Semiconductor, battery, photovoltaic, and other ETFs led the gains, with a weekly increase of more than 5% [4]. Bond Market - Domestic Bonds: In the past week, the price of treasury bond futures rose, and the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities decreased. The 10 - year treasury bond futures contract rose by 0.62%, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 5.32 BP to 1.7954%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 12008 billion yuan. The bond market leverage level decreased, and the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 7.83 trillion yuan on October 24, 2025, to 6.71 trillion yuan on October 31, 2025 [5][7]. - US Bonds: In the past week, US bond yields increased, and the yield curve shifted upward as a whole. As of October 31, 2025, the 10 - year US bond yield increased by 9 BP to 4.11% [8]. Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar appreciated, and the US dollar index rose by 0.80%. The US dollar appreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. The US dollar exchange rate against the offshore and onshore RMB slightly decreased [9]. Gold Market - Gold prices continued to fall. The London spot gold price fell by 2.26% to $4011.50 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price fell by 3.08% to $3995.70 per ounce. The domestic gold price also continued to fall, with the Shanghai spot gold falling by 1.51% to 921.50 yuan per gram and the futures falling by 1.65% to 920.48 yuan per gram [10]. Policy and Event Impact - The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading does not necessarily mean an increase in liquidity injection. It is only a liquidity management tool, and only an increase in net treasury bond purchases represents an increase in liquidity injection [11]. - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea eased the economic and trade relations between the two countries, which is conducive to improving investors' risk preference [12].