生猪日报：供应压力继续体现，现货价格回落-20251103

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3045719 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0015458 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The overall supply pressure in the pig market persists, with the spot price of pigs showing a downward trend, and the futures price mainly fluctuating [3][4] - The subsequent spot price of pigs is expected to remain weak, and the futures price is expected to have limited upward space and mainly fluctuate [3][4] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, the average spot price of pigs is 12.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.45 yuan/kg compared to yesterday. Prices in various regions have generally declined [3] Futures Prices - Most futures contract prices have fallen. For example, LH01 decreased by 80 to 11,735, and LH07 decreased by 105 to 12,410 [3] Sow and Piglet Prices - The piglet price this week is 175 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan compared to last week, and the sow price remains unchanged at 1545 yuan [3] Spot Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising is - 89.33 yuan/head, an increase of 96.35 yuan/head compared to yesterday. The profit for purchasing piglets is - 179.72 yuan/head, an increase of 109.35 yuan/head compared to yesterday [3] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 158,597 heads, an increase of 1,157 heads compared to yesterday [3] Pig Price Spreads - The spreads between different types of pigs have changed. For example, the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased by 0.05 to 0.35 [3] Contract Spreads - Contract spreads have also changed. For example, the LH7 - 9 spread decreased by 65 to - 725 [3] Group 5: Market Situation Analysis Supply Side - Large - scale enterprises' pig出栏 volume continues to increase, and the overall supply pressure remains. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs has not changed much, and the recent存栏量 has decreased [3] - Secondary fattening存栏量 is increasing rapidly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is high due to the continuous increase in the price spread between large and small pigs [3] - The current出栏 weight of pigs remains high, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still relatively abundant [3] Futures Market - The futures price of pigs has declined. The market is still worried about the subsequent release of production capacity. The previous decline in the futures price has fully reflected the negative factors [3][4] - In the context of continued supply pressure, the spot price is mainly downward, and the futures price is expected to have limited upward space and mainly fluctuate [3][4] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell wide - straddle strategy [5]