贵金属月报:多空因素交织，贵金属波动加剧-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Since October, precious metal prices have shown a trend of first rising sharply and then falling sharply, with a recent slight stabilization. Geopolitical factors initially boosted the safe - haven sentiment, but then the easing of Sino - US trade relations and other factors led to a sharp decline. The recent Fed rate cut and the end of the balance - sheet reduction have helped prices stabilize. Due to the US government shutdown and Powell's hawkish remarks, the December rate - cut path is uncertain, and precious metals continue to be in an adjustment state [3]. - Last month, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased. Gold and silver ETF funds had strong inflows but slightly reduced recently. Global gold demand and reserves are growing, with investment demand being the main driving force, and central bank gold purchases remain high, so the investment demand for precious metals will remain strong [3]. - The US government shutdown continues, and the release of economic data is postponed. Trump's pressure and the upcoming announcement of Fed candidates raise concerns. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, and the new gold tax policy may attract funds into the futures market. In the long - term, precious metals are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on Shanghai gold and silver in the long - term, and in the short - term, buy in batches when prices stabilize. In the medium - term, it is advisable to hold long positions or go long on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: Gold and silver prices in various markets have shown different degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of gold in the London market increased by 4.87%, and the spot price of silver increased by 6.03%. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, with gold inventories down 4.69% and silver inventories down 9.01%. The total positions and speculative net long positions of both metals also increased to varying degrees [5]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: Since October, the domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios first rose and then fell. Geopolitical factors initially boosted precious metal prices, and the price fluctuation of silver was greater than that of gold, pushing up the gold - silver ratio. In late October, the ratio gradually declined, and silver still has room for a supplementary increase [8]. - Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets: The price difference of gold between domestic and foreign markets decreased compared with last month, while that of silver increased. Since October, the prices of precious metals in domestic and foreign markets have shown a trend of sharp rise followed by a sharp fall, and recently, the prices have slightly stabilized [9]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - US Dollar Index: In October, the US dollar index fluctuated in the range of 98 - 99. The US government shutdown and the banking credit crisis have weakened the US dollar index, limiting its upside space [11]. - US Treasury Yield: In October, the real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries first fell and then rose, and recently declined slightly, remaining at a low level. The high debt scale and the government shutdown have increased the demand for US Treasuries, driving down the real yields [13]. - US Key Economic Data: - Inflation Data: In August, the US core PCE increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year. In September, the CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected. The PPI in August was 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected, and - 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a reduction in production - side inflation pressure [19][22][23]. - PMI: In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, lower than expected, and the service PMI was 50, also lower than expected, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and service industries [28]. - Retail and Food Data: In August, US retail sales increased by 0.63% month - on - month, higher than expected, mainly driven by online sales, clothing, and sports goods [28]. - Employment Data: In September, ADP employment decreased by 32,000, and in August, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. Due to the government shutdown, the release of employment data has been postponed [31]. - Fed's Actions: In October, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Powell's speech was hawkish. The December rate - cut is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut has fallen to 60% - 70%. The Fed will stop the balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. The new gold tax policy may attract funds into the futures market [34]. - Geopolitical Factors: The US government shutdown has lasted for more than a month, affecting economic data release and increasing concerns about US fiscal stability. The cease - fire expectation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Sino - US trade friction have repeatedly affected the safe - haven sentiment, causing large fluctuations in precious metal prices [35]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: Due to the US government shutdown, CFTC data has not been updated since September 23, 2025. CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 52,400 lots to 266,700 lots, and CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 5,800 lots to 52,300 lots [38]. - ETF Positions: As of October 31, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 26 tons to 1,039.20 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 495 tons to 15,189.82 tons. In October, the holdings of gold and silver ETFs first rose and then fell [39]. 3.4 Other Elements - Gold and Silver Inventories: As of October 31, 2025, COMEX gold inventories decreased by 4.69% to 38.168 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventories decreased by 9.01% to 482.4387 million ounces. The decrease in silver inventories has alleviated the shortage of London silver spot inventories [41]. - Gold and Silver Demand: In October 2025, the global gold reserve decreased slightly, while China's gold reserve increased. In the third quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year, with investment demand as the main driving force. The global silver market is expected to be in a shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, and silver has room for a supplementary increase in the long - term [45]. - Outlook: In the short - term, precious metals are expected to continue to adjust due to the combination of factors such as the Fed's rate cut, geopolitical uncertainties, and the US government shutdown. In the long - term, precious metals are expected to be stronger, supported by central bank gold purchases and the new gold tax policy. It is recommended to hold long positions or go long on dips [46].